[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 15N34W TO 8N38W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE
IS BEING ENGULFED BY THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER...WHICH DRY AIR IS
HINDERING CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N57W TO 10N61W MOVING W AT 15 KT. DEEP LAYER
MOIST AIR IS SE OF THE WAVE AXIS WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 52W-60W. THE REST OF THE
WAVE ENVIRONMENT SHOWS FAIRLY DRY IN THE SSMI TPW
IMAGERY.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ON S-SE MEXICO AND ADJACENT WATERS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 21N91W TO 10N93W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE E PAC WATERS
AND SE COAST OF MEXICO BEING ENHANCED BY A REGION OF MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
7N21W TO 8N28W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 8N28W TO 10N35W...THEN RESUMES FROM 9N38W TO 9N51W TO
9N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 22W-
27W...FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 28W-35W...FROM 6N-11N W OF 39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING...RETURN FLOW AND A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT
DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N94W TO 19N97W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 80 NM AHEAD OF ITS AXIS. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N91W TO 18N92W...THEN INTO THE E PAC
WATERS. THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IN THE
SW GULF. OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
29N87W TO 28N90W TO 28N94W WITH SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 86W-94W. AN UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT IS ENHANCING SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN
86W-91W AND OVER COASTAL WATERS FROM ST PETERSBURG TO FORT
MYERS. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RUNS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN...ALONG THE
COASTLINE OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE SW BASIN. A BROAD REGION OF
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS ADVECTING UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN...THUS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 16N...INCLUDING
THE GREATER ANTILLES AND JAMAICA. OVER THE SW BASIN...THE
MONSOON TROUGH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
TSTMS S OF 11N W OF 80W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PERSIST
GENERALLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-83W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AHEAD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORS ITSELF ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN STARTING THIS
EVENING WITH SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

...HISPANIOLA...
MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLAND WITH A
DIFFLUENCE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT WHICH IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FOR HISPANIOLA
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS A DRY AIRMASS MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND INHIBITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
OVER THE SW N ATLC...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N72W
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 23N E
OF 73W...INCLUDING ANDROS...GRAND BAHAMA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. FARTHER EAST...A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
24N63W SUPPORTS SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 58W-65W.
OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVES ALREADY DISCUSSED...THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1027 MB HIGHS N OF THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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