[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N35W TO 09N39W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
IMAGERY. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION HOWEVER N OF 14N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 18N59W TO
09N62W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION N
OF 13N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
09N-13N BETWEEN 58W-61W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 20N93W TO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC AT 11N94W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS
WELL DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY W OF THE WAVE
AXIS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...GUATEMALA...AND SOUTH MEXICO
FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 87W-96W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
08N21W TO 09N32W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 09N32W TO 10N38W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES W OF A
TROPICAL WAVE FROM 10N41W TO 09N50W TO 09N60W. BESIDES THE
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 06N-
09N BETWEEN 25W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 24N-26N
BETWEEN 87W-92W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
S MEXICO WITH CONVECTION INLAND TO INCLUDE THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SEE ABOVE. EVENING AIRMASS SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE N GULF E OF E TEXAS AT
95W...OVER FLORIDA...AND OVER W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER SE LOUISIANA AT 29N90W
ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO MOVE W WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND ANOTHER IS STILL
AFFECTING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA. SEE ABOVE. 10-30
KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-80W. BESIDES THE
CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...EVENING AIRMASS
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS
PRODUCING SOUTHERLY FLOW W OF 80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W...AS WELL AS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

...HISPANIOLA...

EVENING AIRMASS SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A LESSER PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC N OF
24N W OF 75W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 30N67W
TO 24N68W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WELL E OF THE TROUGH
AXIS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 60W-65W. A LARGE 1028 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N50W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
29N73W ENHANCING SHOWERS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED E
OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N61W ENHANCING CONVECTION. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM
20N-30N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES TO
MOVE W AND LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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