[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141036
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N37W TO 17N32W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD AND WEAK 700 MB TROUGH
BETWEEN 30W-40W AND AN AREA OF 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY
CENTERED NEAR 12N36W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N60W TO 19N57W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER
INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF THE ITCZ
REGION.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N89W TO 20N89W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
FOCUSED ON ENERGY CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS STRETCHING
WESTWARD OVER GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE WAVE CONTINUES
TO MOVE THROUGH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14N82W TO 19N88W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO
10N22W TO 10N29W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 10N29W TO 09N37W TO 08N46W TO 07N58W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 12W-23W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN 31W-
49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 51W-
59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF REMAINS WITHIN GENERALLY EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN GEORGIA NEAR 35N84W AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 19N100W. GIVEN THE FAIRLY BENIGN
CONDITIONS ALOFT...THE RESULTING CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE ARE
FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS MORNING AS WELL. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA W-SW TO 26N97W IS
MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 25N-27N
BETWEEN 82W-84W...N OF 28N BETWEEN 89W-93W...AND S OF 21N
BETWEEN 94W-97W. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY OTHER AREA OF SIGNIFICANCE
IS THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE S OF 20N ALONG 89W MOVING
WEST ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE WAVE
CONTINUES TO GENERATE THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND EAST PACIFIC WATERS.
LOOKING AHEAD...THE WEAK EAST-WEST SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 25N-28N THROUGH THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
THIS MORNING. WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS CONTINUE
TO ADVECT EASTWARD AWAY FROM CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 89W...OVERALL AT THE SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN
TRANQUIL. THE MOST INFLUENTIAL FEATURE ASIDE FROM THE TROPICAL
WAVE...IS THE PERSISTENCE OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES GENERALLY
OCCURRING S OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-82W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AHEAD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORS ITSELF ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY AND INTO THE EAST PACIFIC DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A HIGH PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO.

...HISPANIOLA...
EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH ONLY DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
REMAINING OVER THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT
FOR HISPANIOLA REMAINS STABLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N72W THAT EXTENDS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS...HOWEVER REMAINS
FAIRLY BENIGN DUE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N50W SW TO BERMUDA
NEAR 32N65W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N80W. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 27N BETWEEN 73W-81W...HOWEVER MOST
ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AND QUICK MOVING. FARTHER
EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N62W THAT
CONTINUES TO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 28N63W TO
21N66W. AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS
OCCURRING PRIMARILY EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS FROM 22N-30N
BETWEEN 58W-65W. OTHERWISE...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY THE 1027 MB
HIGH MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY AND A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF
THE AZORES NEAR 36N38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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