[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE OFF OF THE W COAST OF AFRICA WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N24W TO 10N28W MOVING W AT 15 KT. NO
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT SINCE THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A
DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER.

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 14N60W TO 07N61W MOVING W
AT ABOUT 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
LOCATED FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 57W-65W...AND INLAND OVER VENEZUELA
FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 61W-66W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N69W TO 11N70W MOVING W AT 20 KT. DRY AIR FROM
A SAHARAN AIRMASS ALONG WITH WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT IS HINDERING
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
12N17W TO 09N24W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
CONTINUES FROM 09N24W TO 07N45W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR
04N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-30W...AND BETWEEN 45W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N89W. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
DIURNAL HEATING HAS RESULTED IN...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
OVER FLORIDA...OVER THE SE GULF STATES FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 87W-
91W...INLAND OVER MEXICO FROM 16N-29N BETWEEN 94W-111W...OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N OF 19N...AND OVER W CUBA W OF 80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF S TEXAS
FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 95W-98W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER N MEXICO NEAR 27N101W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION
ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE E GULF NEAR 25N86W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION
OVER FLORIDA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W...AND ALONG THE COAST
OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING DIURNAL MAXIMUM.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA...HISPANIOLA...COSTA
RICA...AND PANAMA...ALL DUE TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING DIURNAL
HEATING. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 85W-87W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 20-30 KT WINDS
ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 17N...WITH HIGHEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N72W ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE
OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM 11N-17N W OF 72W...WHERE AN AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR
LAYER REMAINS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL
WAVES TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA
PARTIALLY DUE TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING DIURNAL HEATING. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N72W ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION OVER THE ISLAND. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE ADDITION
OF MORE CONVECTION DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N47W
PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINS N OF
THE N BAHAMAS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 78W-80W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N53W. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N15W.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 72W OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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