[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101723
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE OFF OF THE W COAST OF AFRICA HAS
ITS AXIS EXTENDING FROM 23N23W TO 10N27W AND IS MOVING W AT 15
KT. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT SINCE THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER.

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED 250 NM SE OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 14N56W TO 04N57W
AND IS MOVING W AT ABOUT 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN A 120 NM WIDE BAND CENTERED FROM
12.5N62W TO 09N54W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N62W TO 12N68W AND IS MOVING W AT 20 KT. DRY
AIR FROM A SAHARAN AIRMASS ALONG WITH WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT IS
HINDERING CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
14N17W TO 08N29W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS
NEAR 08N29W AND CONTINUES TO 07N40W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST
NEAR 04N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
LOCATED WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ W OF
22W TO THE S AMERICA COAST.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 26N101W AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A FAIRLY SHARP MIDDLE/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF
CAMPECHE. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS AIDING A STRONG TSTMS FROM THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST TO 21N. A
BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
GULF. AT THE SURFACE A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF
NEAR 28N86W...MOVING SLOWLY W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN
HAS ITS AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 20N76W TO 10N82W. MODERATE
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 72W WITH SATELLITE
CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 40 KT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LOCATED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S
OF 14N W OF 81W INTO NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA.

...HISPANIOLA...
THE ISLAND IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE CARIBBEAN SECTION. THIS IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THAT ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
LOCATED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 31N70W AND COVERS THE AREA
N OF 22N W OF 64W. MOVING DOWNSTREAM A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...ABOUT 12 DEGREES IN DIAMETER...IS
CENTERED NEAR 30N54W AND IS MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. THE WESTERLIES
ALOFT MENTIONED IN THE CARIBBEAN SECTION CONTINUE OVER THE
ATLANTIC FROM 12N TO 18N W OF 48W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED N OF 27N BETWEEN 23W AND
40W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 10N E
OF 55W. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR NE
PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OFF OF THE AFRICAN COAST. AT THE
SURFACE A RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 37N47W
THROUGH 32N68W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB


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