[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101051
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF AFRICA LATE WED
NIGHT. THIS IS A LARGE AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
24N22W TO 10N25W MOVING W AT 15 KT. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT SINCE THE WAVE IS COMPLETELY EMBEDDED IN THE DRY SAHARAN
AIR LAYER.

TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 320 NM SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH
AXIS EXTENDING NEAR 14N54W TO 5N57W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE
NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT IS BEING ENGULFED BY THE SAHARAN AIR
LAYER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE S OF 12N
BETWEEN 50W-61W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N60W TO 12N68W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. DRY AIR
FROM A SAHARAN AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT
WHICH ALONG STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IN THE
CARIBBEAN HINDER CONVECTION AT THE TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
13N16W TO 10N20W TO 8N26W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS BEGINS NEAR 8N27W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N38W TO THE SOUTH
AMERICAN COAST NEAR 3N50W. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 20W-32W AND ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 40 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE AZORES HIGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW INTO THE
GULF THUS SUSTAINING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. THE
SURFACE RIDGE IN THE GULF IS BEING ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH
OVER THE NE WATERS NEAR 27N85W AND PROVIDES E-SE WIND FLOW OF 5-
15 KT ACROSS ALL THE GULF QUADRANTS BUT THE NE. EXCEPT FOR THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...DEEP LAYER
MOIST AIR IS PRESENT ACROSS THE BASIN. A MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED
ON THE BORDER BETWEEN SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO EXTENDS A
TROUGH TO THE FAR SW WESTERN GULF. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OVER THIS REGION FROM 20N-27N W OF 93W BEING ENHANCED
BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH
FRI MORNING BEING SUPPORTED BY A FAVORABLE MID-UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE AZORES HIGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW INTO THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN...THUS
SUPPORTING A MODERATE TO STRONG BREEZE 64W-83W WITH NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXCEPT FOR THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL-EASTERN BASIN...THE
REMAINDER BASIN CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRY SAHARAN
AIRMASS WHICH ALONG STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR HINDER
CONVECTION AT THE TIME. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR
DETAILS. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA EXTENDS A TROUGH TO THE SW
BASIN AND SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND NE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE
ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN FRI MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
HISPANIOLA EXTENDS A TROUGH TO THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS IS
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ISLAND AND TSMTS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SAT MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY NW TO
EASTERN CUBA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EXTENDING AN
AXIS SE INTO ADJACENT SW N ATLC WATERS WHERE ALONG DEEP LAYER
MODERATE MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 27N W
OF 77W. OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVES ALREADY
DISCUSSED...THE AZORES HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE ATLC WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG DRY AIR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE BASIN SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER. BESIDES A SURFACE TROUGH
FOR THE SW N ATLC...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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