[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE ITCZ WITH AXIS EXTENDING NEAR
13N51W TO 5N52W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT
IS BEING AFFECTED BY THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 50W-
59W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N59W TO 10N65W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. DRY AIR
FROM A SAHARAN AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT
WHICH ALONG STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IN THE
CARIBBEAN HINDER CONVECTION AT THE TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
12N16W TO 9N20W TO 7N26W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS BEGINS NEAR 7N26W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N38W TO THE SOUTH
AMERICAN COAST NEAR 4N51W. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 21W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE AZORES HIGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW INTO THE
GULF THUS SUSTAINING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. THE
SURFACE RIDGE IN THE GULF IS BEING ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH
OVER FORT MYERS COASTAL WATERS WHICH IS PROVIDING E-SE WIND FLOW
OF 5-15 KT ACROSS ALL THE GULF QUADRANTS BUT THE NE. EXCEPT FOR
THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...DEEP
LAYER MOIST AIR IS PRESENT ACROSS THE BASIN. A MID-LEVEL LOW
CENTERED IN THE BORDER BETWEEN SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO AS
WELL AS DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN GULF SUPPORT
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 19N-27N W OF 94W. SURFACE
HIGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF THROUGH FRI MORNING BEING SUPPORTED BY A FAVORABLE
MID-UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE AZORES HIGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW INTO THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN...THUS
SUPPORTING A MODERATE TO STRONG BREEZE TO 83W WITH NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXCEPT FOR THE NW AND
NE CARIBBEAN...THE REMAINDER BASIN CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A DRY SAHARAN AIRMASS WHICH ALONG STRONG DEEP LAYER
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR HINDER CONVECTION AT THE TIME. A TROPICAL
WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SEE THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER-LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA EXTENDS A
TROUGH TO THE SW BASIN AND SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OVER WESTERN HAITI AND EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A NEW
TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN FRI MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
HISPANIOLA EXTENDS A TROUGH TO THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS IS
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER SW HAITI AND EASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT
MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY NW TO EASTERN CUBA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A NARROW UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE SE CONUS AND EXTENDS TO
ADJACENT SW N ATLC WATERS WHERE ALONG DEEP LAYER MODERATE
MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF 76W.
OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVES ALREADY DISCUSSED...THE
AZORES HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE ATLC
WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN
SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER. BESIDES A SURFACE TROUGH FOR THE SW N
ATLC...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net