[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 22N25W TO 9N29W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE WAVE CONTINUE EMBEDDED IN THE DRY
SAHARAN AIR LAYER...THEREFORE NO CONVECTION IS PRESENT IN THIS
REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE WAVE NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 26W-30W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
NEAR 15N62W TO 7N64W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
E-SE OF A LINE FROM 18N64W TO 13N71W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N72W TO 10N72W MOVING W AT 20 KT. DRY AIR FROM
A SAHARAN AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WAVE
ENVIRONMENT WHICH ALONG STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IN
THE CARIBBEAN HINDER CONVECTION AT THE TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
12N16W TO 9N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS
NEAR 9N21W AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N38W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST
NEAR 4N51W. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 4N-
8N BETWEEN 50W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE AZORES HIGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW INTO THE
GULF THUS SUSTAINING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. THE
SURFACE RIDGE IN THE GULF IS BEING ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH
OVER THE NE WATERS NEAR 28N86W AND PROVIDES E-SE WIND FLOW OF 5-
15 KT ACROSS ALL THE GULF QUADRANTS BUT THE NE. EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN GULF AT THE LOWER-LEVELS...DEEP LAYER MOIST AIR IS
PRESENT ACROSS THE BASIN. IN THE W GULF...BOTH DRY AIR AND
STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR INHIBIT CONVECTION. THE EASTERN BASIN
IS ALSO DEVOID OF CONVECTION AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
FAVORING AIR LIFTING. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE N-NE GULF THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE AZORES HIGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW INTO THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN...THUS
SUPPORTING A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE BETWEEN 64W-80W. EXCEPT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL BASIN WHERE DRY AIR FROM A
SAHARAN AIRMASS LINGERS...THE REMAINDER BASIN SHOW A MOISTURE
INCREASE. HOWEVER...STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR OVER
THE THE SW AND CENTRAL BASIN HINDERS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION AT THE TIME. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS.
OTHERWISE...AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EXTENDS A TROUGH TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND
SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS BETWEEN CUBA...JAMAICA AND
HISPANIOLA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER COASTAL WATERS OF SE
CUBA.

...HISPANIOLA...
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE EXTENDS A TROUGH TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THIS IS
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AS
WELL AS HAITI COASTAL WATERS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SAT MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY NW TO EASTERN
CUBA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAPPENING IN THE BASIN. THIS IS DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC
AS WELL AS THE NORTH ATLC SUBTROPICAL HIGH. OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLC...A WAVE IS WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH NO
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SEE THE TROPICAL SECTION ABOVE FOR
MORE MORE INFORMATION. OTHERWISE...BESIDES A SURFACE TROUGH FOR
THE SW N ATLC...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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