[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030556
TWDAT

TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR IS CENTERED NEAR 30.9N 79.1W AS OF 03/0600
UTC...OR ABOUT 140 MILES SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA...
MOVING N AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. A
TURN TOWARD THE NE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
NEW ENGLAND. ARTHUR IS VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS IN RAINBANDS ARE LOCATED FROM 28N TO
33N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND
THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH THE
AXIS ALONG 40W FROM 10N TO 23N...MOVING W AT 20 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS SAHARAN
DRY AIR IS IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS
WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N58W TO 10N63W...MOVING W AT 15
KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N78W TO 10N83W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N TO
16N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W INCLUDING EASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN
HONDURAS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH
THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N89W TO 14N93W...MOVING W AT 15 KT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 11N15W
TO 09N27W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 09N27W AND CONTINUES ALONG
06N45W TO 05N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
LOCATED FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 21W AND 23W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS POSITIONED
OFF THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N95.5W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE
CIRCULATION HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. BROKEN/
OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS ARE LOCATED S OF 25N W OF 91W.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
GULF. A 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR
27.5N93W.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN WITH SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS AS
HIGH AS 30 TO 35 KT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE LOCATED E OF 66W...MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD.

...HISPANIOLA...

MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY COVERS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY
OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE ISLAND.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CUTS ACROSS THE W
CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N58W TO PUERTO RICO.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS LOCATED W OF THE AXIS TO NEAR 70W AND E OF THE
AXIS TO A LINE THROUGH 32N45W TO 18N50W. MOVING DOWNSTREAM AN
OVAL SHAPED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
NEAR 34N34W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE S TO NEAR 29N30W IN 48 HOURS. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG AND OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA N OF 22N.
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER MOST OF THE DEEP
TROPICS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK 1020 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR
31N56W WITH A TRAILING STATIONARY FRONT TO 23N61W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB


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