[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031202
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE ARTHUR IS CENTERED NEAR 31.8N 78.7W AS OF 03/1200
UTC...OR ABOUT 130 NM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA... MOVING
N-NE AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A TURN
TOWARD THE NE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AHEAD
OF A TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS IN RAINBANDS ARE
LOCATED FROM 28N TO 34N BETWEEN 76W AND 81W. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH THE
AXIS ALONG 42W FROM 10N TO 23N...MOVING W AT 20 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS SAHARAN
DRY AIR IS IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N61W TO 10N64W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N79W TO 10N84W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 14N TO
17N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W INCLUDING NE NICARAGUA AND EASTERN
HONDURAS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH
THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N90W TO 14N94W...MOVING W AT 15 KT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 12N16W
TO 08N26W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N26W AND CONTINUES ALONG TO
07N40W TO 04N54W. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH OR THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS POSITIONED
OFF THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N95W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE
CIRCULATION HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. BROKEN/
OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS ARE LOCATED S OF 25N W OF 90W.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
GULF. A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR
28N94W.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN WITH SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS AS
HIGH AS 30 TO 35 KT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED E OF 70W...MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD.

...HISPANIOLA...

MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY COVERS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY
OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE ISLAND.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CUTS ACROSS THE W
CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N58W ACROSS PUERTO RICO.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS LOCATED W OF THE AXIS TO NEAR 70W AND E OF THE
AXIS TO A LINE THROUGH 32N45W TO 17N50W. MOVING DOWNSTREAM AN
OVAL SHAPED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
NEAR 33N32W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE S TO NEAR 29N30W IN 48 HOURS. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG AND OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA N OF 22N.
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER MOST OF THE DEEP
TROPICS. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 31N66W TO
27N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB


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