[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR IS CENTERED NEAR 30.2N 79.2W AT 0000 UTC
OR ABOUT 156 NM S-SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA...MOVING N AT
6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON
THURSDAY. THE CORE OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE
COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR
THURSDAY. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN
75W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE RAINBANDS OF ARTHUR ARE ELSEWHERE N OF 24N BETWEEN 72W-83W.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 22N37W TO 10N36W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. NO CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS SAHARAN DRY AIR IS IN THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT.

TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 80 NM E-SE OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N55W TO 10N61W...MOVING W AT
15 KT. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS SAHARAN DRY
AIR IS IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT.

TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N77W TO 10N81W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS HINDERING
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION E AND N OF THE AXIS. HOWEVER...UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND LOW SHEAR SW OF THE WAVE IS SUPPORTING
HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 16N W OF 80W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
GUATEMALA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N88W TO 11N92W...MOVING W
AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LOCATED IN
THE TERRITORIES MENTIONED ABOVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 10N14W
TO 9N26W TO 7N34W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 7N35W AND CONTINUES
ALONG 4N44W TO 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-
11N BETWEEN 16W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF
SUPPORTING A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N95W. MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE E GULF ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR
IN THE SW N ATLC IS FUELING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 20N-
23N W OF 91W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. A MID-LEVEL ELONGATED ANTICYCLONE FROM TEXAS TO
PENSACOLA FLORIDA EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF SUPPORTS A
1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N93W. FARTHER EAST...A MID LEVEL DIVERGENT
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
TSTMS N OF 24N BETWEEN 85W-91W. EASTWARD...THE RAINBANDS OF
TROPICAL ARTHUR SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TOMORROW
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE ON SATURDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATE THE CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS IN THIS REGION THROUGH THAT
PERIOD. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COASTLINE BY FRIDAY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...SEE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN BASIN WHILE AN ELONGATED TROUGH
EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC. EXCEPT
FOR THE SW BASIN AND PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN...DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A SAHARAN AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH ALONG STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR INHIBIT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. REMNANTS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ARE OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND
ADJACENT WATERS. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC EXTENDS A
RIDGE TO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...THUS TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND SUPPORTING EASTERLIES OF 20-25 KT S OF 17N BETWEEN
66W-81W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE TODAY HAS LEFT LINGERING SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA. A SAHARAN AIRMASS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND THURSDAY WHICH WILL REDUCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. HAZY WEATHER AND LOW VISIBILITY ARE
EXPECTED AS THIS DRY DUSTY AIR LAYER MOVES OVER THE ISLAND.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

OVER THE SW N ATLC...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR CONTINUES MOVING
NORTHWARD WHILE IT IS ANTICIPATED FOR IT TO STRENGHTEN TO A
HURRICANE TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 75W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAINBANDS OF ARTHUR ARE ELSEWHERE N OF
24N BETWEEN 72W-83W. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
INFORMATION. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM
38N68N TO 30N66W TO 26N66W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS 100 NM EITHER
SIDE OF IT. AN ELONGATED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN 50W-65W
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1020 MB LOW NEAR
30N55W TO 25N57W TO 23N62W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVES
DISCUSSED ABOVE...SURFACE PRESSURE AND RIDGING DOMINATE
ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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