[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1500 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR IS CENTERED NEAR 29.1N 79.1W AT 1500
UTC...OR ABOUT 105 MILES ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA AND
MOVING N AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
ARTHUR WILL BE STEERED NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO A
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE E OF THE CAROLINAS. ARTHUR IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE THU. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150
NM N SEMICIRCLE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
ALONG 35W FROM 21N-11N...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. NO ENHANCED
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS SAHARAN DRY AIR IS IN
THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT.

TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 57W FROM 20N-9N...OR ABOUT 220 NM
E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND IS MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. THIS WAVE
IS ALSO VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 75W FROM
20N-11N AND IS MOVING W AT 10 KT. NO SIGNICANT CONVECTION WITH
THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 85W FROM 20N-9N AND IS MOVING W AT 15 KT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LOCATED AT THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 14N17W
TO 8N33W. THE ITCZ FROM 8N33W 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS LOCATED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 5N E OF 19W
TO AFRICA.


...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN GULF NEAR 26N94W AND IS STATIONARY. CYCLONIC WINDS COVER
THE ENTIRE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NE GULF. A SURFACE 1017 MB HIGH
IS LOCATED IN THE N CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N93W AND IS MOVING
SLOWLY WESTWARD. OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS
ARE LOCATED OVER THE SW GULF.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT
COVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND BECOME MODERATE OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS
INDICATING SPEEDS UP TO 40 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP LATER TODAY.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE W CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC N OF 13N BETWEEN 50W-65W WITH THE AXIS FROM 32N53W TO A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 22N58W TO THE WINDWARD ISLAND. SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N67W TO 26N65W. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE WITHIN
120 NM E OF TROUGH N OF 30N. A WEAK 1018 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED
NEAR 31N55W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO
24N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E
OF THE FRONT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED NEAR 22N31W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING TO 32N36W...ANOTHER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONE SW TO 9N55W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS IS BETWEEN 25W-45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS


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