[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272333
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N53W TO 9N52W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 125/150
NM OF LINE FROM 15N56W TO 10N48W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N17W AND CONTINUES TO 11N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N31W 4N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N51W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 41W-51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-11N E OF 18W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA AND
FROM 6N-9M BETWEEN 27W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF THIS EVENING.
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS SUPPORTING
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO TEXAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE NW GULF NE OF 27N
W OF 90W TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. LINGERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SE GULF
S OF 23N BETWEEN 85W-90W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH OVER SW GEORGIA
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS IS NOT EXPECTED TO ENTER
THE GULF WATERS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOPED OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT REACHING THE TEXAS
COAST EARLY FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN AND IS ANCHORED IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N87W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE N
CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SW
HAITI TO 14N74W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF 14N W OF 70W INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND JAMAICA. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM INLAND OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 14N84W
INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN TO 10N82W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS W OF TROUGH TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND COSTA
RICA. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
W CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE. TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS MON AND MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THROUGH FRI.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS N HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT
DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE ISLAND
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LIMITING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE W ATLC THROUGH
32N62W ALONG 27N67W TO CUBA NEAR 22N77W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 23N72W TO OVER E CUBA NEAR 20N75W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE
TROUGH. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ALONG 22N67W TO 28N56W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT TO GENERATE A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR
22N77W 25N68W TO 32N61W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED
BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR
33N39W AND A STRONG 1031 MB HIGH FURTHER N OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. STATIONARY FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH MON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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