[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 271755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W MOVING WESTWARD
15 KNOTS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 47W AND 55W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 7N TO 9N
BETWEEN 47W AND 50W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 16N BETWEEN 44W AND 55W.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE NEARBY PRECIPITATION MAY BE
RELATED MORE CORRECTLY TO THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N20W TO
6N25W AND 5N33W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 11N TO THE EAST
OF 30W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND
44W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
MOVING THROUGH ARKANSAS. A TROUGH TRAILS FROM THE CYCLONIC
CENTER TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL
WATERS. WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MULTILAYERED MOISTURE
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 27N80W 24N90W
23N98W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 89W AND 96W WITH THE
ARKANSAS CYCLONIC CENTER AND TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE REST
OF THE AREA.

A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...ALONG 23N98W AT THE MEXICO COAST...20N96W...18N92W IN
SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR NORTHERN GUATEMALA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 22N TO THE
WEST OF 90W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE ICAO STATION KVBS OFF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER
THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS
FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST SOUTHWARD. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS WITH RAIN COVER THE REST OF THE TEXAS GULF
COAST...INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL LOUISIANA.
HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA...
AND MOBILE ALABAMA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS IN THE U.S.A.
GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM
8 FEET TO 10 FEET FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 85W AND 94W.

...HISPANIOLA...

HISPANIOLA IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AT THE PRESENT
TIME...ACCOMPANYING A 71W SURFACE TROUGH.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 71W FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
13N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 71W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA BETWEEN 68W AND 73W.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN AN
AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW BECAUSE OF SHORTWAVE INVERTED TROUGHS
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA STARTS THE 48-HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD IN A RIDGE. THE RIDGE MOVES NORTHWARD AND
HISPANIOLA ENDS UP ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE
FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...FROM
A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH...WILL COVER THE AREA
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 31N66W 26N70W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
TO CUBA NEAR 22N70W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 22N70W TO
21N82W AND TO 19N87W ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 72W/73W FROM 20N TO 24N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 45 NM TO 75 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 17N89W IN BELIZE... TO 18N85W
19N85W 21N82W 21N81W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 31N61W 26N66W 24N69W 23N73W 22N77W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA
BEYOND 86W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N
TO THE WEST OF 76W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 10N81W 13N83W...TO THE EASTERNMOST
PART OF HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED STRONG
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA COAST FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN
83W AND 84W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH
OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 82W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
CARIBBEAN TROUGH ALONG 71W...WINDS 20 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 8 FEET WITHIN 150 NM TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N39W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH
OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 31N66W 26N70W STATIONARY FRONT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 50W TROPICAL WAVE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 FEET TO 10 FEET FROM 11N
TO 18N BETWEEN 45W AND 55W. EXPECT ALSO...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS
AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 FEET TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 9N TO 18N
BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF WINDS
20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET FROM 19N TO 23N TO THE
EAST OF 38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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