[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271120
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N49W TO 16N49W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING AND A
DEEP MOISTURE MAXIMUM FROM 08N-16N BETWEEN 45W-52W AS NOTED ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 06N-15N BETWEEN 44W-50W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
10N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
10N20W TO 06N30W TO 02N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 05N-11N BETWEEN 22W-29W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ELSEWHERE FROM 05N-13N BETWEEN 14W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF
THIS MORNING AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT FRONTS
ARE ANALYZED ACROSS THE GULF...SURFACE RIDGING HOLDS STRONG
ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA NEAR
33N84W PROVIDING 10 TO 20 KT E-NE WINDS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE NOTED S OF A LINE FROM TAMPA BAY NEAR 28N83W TO 22N97W...AND
IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 18N92W TO
22N97W. THE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SLIDE INTO THE SW
NORTH ATLC BY LATE MONDAY WITH E-SE WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW NOTED ACROSS THE NW GULF AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY EARLY
THURSDAY AND QUICKLY SKIRT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND ADJACENT
WATERS BEFORE THE UPCOMING WEEK ENDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N84W WHICH IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN W OF 78W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...CONVERGENT TRADES AND THE
PRESENCE OF A SHEAR LINE DRAPED FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO
THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 15N W OF 77W. ANOTHER
AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 10N81W
TO 15N85W WITH CONVECTION MAINLY OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF HONDURAS
AND NICARAGUA. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 11N70W AND ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 14N71W
TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N70W IS PROVIDING FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 66W-73W.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY THE ISLAND FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N83W NE TO
23N60W IN THE SW NORTH ATLC. OVERALL THIS IS PROVIDING FOR A FEW
MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OTHERWISE. TO
THE SOUTH...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 71W WHICH IS
PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH MOST ACTIVITY REMAINING IN THE
SOUTHERN ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER TO THE NORTH...A
FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC WITH SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY REMAINING MOSTLY N OF 21N AT
THIS TIME. WHILE THE MORNING PERIOD REMAINS RELATIVELY QUIET...
WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS HISPANIOLA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING OVER
THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC WATERS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY
FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N65W TO 27N70W TO
THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W. WITH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURRING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
FRONT...AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE MAXIMIZED FROM 20N-
32N BETWEEN 57W-70W...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS MORNING.
THIS CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
32N62W TO 25N68W TO 22N78W. OTHERWISE...THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF
THE SW NORTH ATLC CONTINUES TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY DUE TO
SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED ACROSS THE SE CONUS. FARTHER EAST...THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
32N33W. THE SURFACE RIDGING IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A DOMINATE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 30N36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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