[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N46W TO 15N49W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING AND A
DEEP MOISTURE MAXIMUM FROM 07N-15N BETWEEN 42W-50W AS NOTED ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 06N-14N BETWEEN 43W-49W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
11N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
11N22W TO 05N43W TO 05N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 03N-13N BETWEEN 15W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF
THIS EVENING AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT FRONTS
ARE ANALYZED ACROSS THE GULF...SURFACE RIDGING HOLDS STRONG
ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N85W PROVIDING 10 TO
20 KT E-NE WINDS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS
WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS IS NOTED S OF A LINE
FROM TAMPA BAY NEAR 28N83W TO 22N98W...AND IN THE VICINITY OF A
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 19N94W TO 22N97W. THE RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SLIDE INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC BY LATE
MONDAY WITH E-SE WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AND SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW NOTED N OF 25N W OF 90W AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF
THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY EARLY THURSDAY AND QUICKLY
SKIRT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEFORE THE UPCOMING WEEK ENDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N84W WHICH IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 70W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...CONVERGENT TRADES AND
THE PRESENCE OF A SHEAR LINE DRAPED FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
21N78W TO 21N84W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS N OF 15N W OF 75W. ANOTHER AREA OF STRONGER TSTMS IS
FOCUSED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM 10N78W TO 14N83W WITH CONVECTION MAINLY OCCURRING
WITHIN 210 NM WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...INCLUDING INLAND
PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 11N70W AND ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED
FROM BONAIRE NEAR 12N68W TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 18N69W IS PROVIDING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 08N-
19N BETWEEN 62W-71W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF VENEZUELA AND
THE ABC ISLANDS.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY THE ISLAND FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N83W NE TO
23N60W IN THE SW NORTH ATLC. OVERALL THIS IS PROVIDING FOR
MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TO THE
S-SE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 69W WHICH IS PROVIDING
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH MOST ACTIVITY REMAINING IN THE
SOUTHERN ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER TO THE NORTH...A
FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC WITH SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY REMAINING MOSTLY N OF 21N AT
THIS TIME. WHILE THE MORNING PERIOD REMAINS RELATIVELY QUIET...
WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS HISPANIOLA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
47N42W TO 37N51W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N54W TO 29N63W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY SW TO THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
22N78W. WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURRING IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
MAXIMIZED FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN 57W-72W...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE SW NORTH
ATLC THIS EVENING. THIS CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 240 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 32N58W TO 25N70W TO 22N78W. OTHERWISE...THE
NORTHWEST PORTION CONTINUES TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY DUE TO
SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED ACROSS THE SE CONUS. FARTHER EAST...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N56W AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER AT THE SURFACE. GENERALLY THE REMAINDER
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N31W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net