[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262339
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N43W TO 6N47W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-15N
BETWEEN 41W-48W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN
40W AND THE WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N22W TO 5N30W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N42W 4N48W TO SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 4N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 18W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A VARY BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE E CONUS AND GULF OF
MEXICO GIVING THE GULF WATERS NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM 22N97W TO
19N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SW GULF S OF
23N W OF 90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 24N TO ACROSS CUBA AND THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL E OF 89W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A  A 1026 MB HIGH OVER
ALABAMA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE AND EXTENDS
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE W
ATLC AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO
HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N W OF 80W WITH
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE
AREA N OF 15N BETWEEN 75W-80W INCLUDING E CUBA AND JAMAICA. A
SHEAR LINE IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL
CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO 21N86W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM INLAND
OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N85W ACROSS NICARAGUA INTO THE SW
CARIBBEAN TO 10N81W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SW OF A LINE FROM 16N84W TO 10N77W. AN UPPER LOW
IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS
SUPPORTING A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 67W/68W FROM
11N-17N WITH SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 62W-70W. THE SHEAR LINE WILL BECOME DIFFUSE
THROUGH SUN. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE E CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE
W AND DISSIPATE ON SUN.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE ISLAND
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LIMITING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 65W SUPPORTING A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR
32N54W AND EXTENDS ALONG 26N66W TO 22N76W. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N59W AND EXTENDS ALONG 26N70W TO
23N77W WHERE IT BECOMES A SHEAR LINE ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
75 NM E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND BETWEEN THE STATIONARY FRONT
AND THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N72W INTO
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 19N74W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS
ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 32N32W. THE STATIONARY FRONT
WILL MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT THEN BECOME A DIFFUSE
TROUGH SUN THROUGH TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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