[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280533
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON OCT 28 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 17N56W TO 08N53W AND IS MOVING W
NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGH MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY EAST OF THE
WAVE TROUGH FROM 07N-17N BETWEEN 47W-58W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES TO 06N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 04N37W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03N51W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 41W-51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXES BETWEEN 14W-37W...FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN
31W-43W AND 01N-06N BETWEEN 45W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB
HIGH OVER SW GEORGIA WHILE NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES
ALOFT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOW VERY DRY AIR N OF 23N WHICH IS SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE GULF OF
CAMPECHE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N89W TO 19N91W TO
14N92W IN THE E PACIFIC. RAINSHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WHICH EXTENDS 90 NM OFF THE COASTLINE. AN
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE AND IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST
TO PERSIST THROUGH MON NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A COLD FRONT REACHING
THE TEXAS COAST EARLY FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN AND IS ANCHORED IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N87W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE N
CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 19N76W
TO 14N75W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND NORTH-CENTRAL BASIN WHERE A MAXIMUM IN MOISTURE IS
OBSERVED IN THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS MON AND MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THROUGH
FRI.

HISPANIOLA...
THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
JAMAICA AND A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN BAHAMAS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ARE SUPPORTING SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ISLANDWIDE AS WELL AS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CEASE BY MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER
AFTERNOON SHOWERS DUE TO SURFACE HEATING ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE W ATLC THROUGH
30N62W ALONG 26N70W TO CUBA NEAR 20N78W. A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N68W TO OVER E CUBA NEAR 19N75W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BAHAMAS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS
ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 32N35W AND A STRONG 1035 MB HIGH
FURTHER N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH MON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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