[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU OCT 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 12N31W TO
6N31W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
WAVE IS BENEATH AN E/W UPPER RIDGE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT IS PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN 20W-32W
AND FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN 32W-41W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 19N65W TO 10N62W
MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW SURGE OF
DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
90/120 NM E OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 12N-17N.

TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS NO LONGER
DISCERNIBLE AND WAS DROPPED FROM THE 24/1800 UTC ANALYSIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 8N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 7N21W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N27W THEN RESUMES W
OF THE WAVE NEAR 8N35W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N43W TO 6N55W. AN
E/W UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN 20W-32W AND FROM
1N-10N BETWEEN 32W-41W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W TROPICAL
ATLC EXTENDING FROM 14N51W TO 8N52W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 44W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
OVER MISSISSIPPI TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR
24N80W OVER NW CUBA TO N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N87W
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 21N92W THEN INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
90 NM N OF THE FRONT W OF 80W AND SE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT TO
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER
THE GULF IN WAKE OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OVER SE
TEXAS WITH CLEARING SKIES W OF A LINE FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
TO TAMPICO MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD FRI WITH THE W
PORTION OF THE FRONT DISSIPATING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS ACROSS CENTRAL
CUBA INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 14N W OF
79W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-20N W OF 81W.
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N73W
EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 14N82W TO
11N78W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM OVER HAITI NEAR 19N72W TO 12N75W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150/200 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING ALONG 10N FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N W OF 77W. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER CUBA AND ARE BEING
ENHANCED BY THE PROXIMITY OF THE COLD FRONT. GULF OF MEXICO
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
THROUGH FRI BECOMING STATIONARY ALONG 20N THIS WEEKEND THEN
DISSIPATE MON.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N73W THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W AND IS SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM OVER HAITI NEAR 19N72W TO
12N75W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
150/200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS UPPER TROUGH
WILL GIVE THE ISLAND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT UNTIL SUN WHEN THE
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
ALSO COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 75W AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE W ATLC OVER BERMUDA ALONG 28N71W ACROSS THE BAHAMA
INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT. DENSE
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO OVER FLORIDA. AN
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA
ALONG 25N77W TO 29N70W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATES WITH
THE FRONT. UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR
22N73W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING TO 25N72W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 22N TO OVER
HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 68W-72W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER
THE E ATLC N OF 28N E OF 26W TO AFRICA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N17W ALONG 27N25W TO 27N38W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 32N36W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY FROM BERMUDA THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO
CENTRAL CUBA FRI. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SE AND BECOME DIFFUSE
THIS WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net