[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 241758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU OCT 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DEGENERATED TO A REMNANT LOW AT 24/1500
UTC. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30.2N 47.6W AND IS MOVING
NE AT 5 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF
THE LOW CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 13N29W TO 05N31W AND IS MOVING
WEST AT ABOUT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW
LARGE REGIONS OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE EAST AND WEST OF THE AXIS.
COINCIDING WITH THE AREAS OF HIGH MOISTURE...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-12N BETWEEN 20W-40W.

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 19N63W TO 09N59W AND IS MOVING
WEST AT ABOUT 10 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES WHERE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS.

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 17N85W TO 10N85W AND IS MOVING
NEAR 5 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE
IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA.
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS CONVERGING ALONG THE COASTLINES OF
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
WITHIN 200 NM EAST OF THE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N15W TO 11N17W. THE ITCZ
AXIS IS ALONG 11N17W TO 09N27W...THEN CONTINUES WEST OF A
TROPICAL WAVE FROM 08N33W TO 06N44W 08N53W. BESIDES THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-12N BETWEEN 40W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN GULF SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT AT 1500 UTC EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 23N80W TO 22N87W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED IN SOUTHERN MEXICO TO GENERATE
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS DIFFLUENT FLOW
IS SUPPORTING HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 19N-22N
BETWEEN 91W-93W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 18N-23N
BETWEEN 89W-94W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE EASTERN BASIN S
OF 29N WHILE RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ELSEWHERE FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES.

THE PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE SE GULF IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME STATIONARY LATER TODAY AND IS FORECAST TO PERSIST IN THIS
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN IT WILL START TO DISSIPATE. A
SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
AND FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING FRIDAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE EASTERN COAST
OF HONDURAS. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN BASIN
WHICH IS GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IN A REGION OF MODERATE
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WESTERN CUBA
AND ADJACENT WATERS. EASTERLY WINDS ARE BANKING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG THE COASTLINES OF NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA AND
NORTHERN PANAMA TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15N83W TO 11N75W. AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST N OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SUPPORTS A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM 20N69W TO 11N74W.
HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
WITHIN 150 NM OFF ITS SOUTHERN COASTLINE. THIS CONVECTION WILL
BE AFFECTING HAITI LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVES W-NW. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES GENERATING SHOWERS IN THAT REGION. ELSEWHERE FAIR
WEATHER DOMINATES.

THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
WESTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO BE S-SW OF PUERTO RICO BY SATURDAY.
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FAR NW BASIN BY EARLY
FRIDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY SATURDAY.

HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST N OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM 20N69W
TO 11N74W. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND WITHIN 150 NM OFF ITS SOUTHERN COASTLINE. THIS
CONVECTION WILL BE AFFECTING HAITI LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVES W-NW. RAINSHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A DRY
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIKELY HELP TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN GULF SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC NEAR 30N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
NEAR 25N76W TO 21N89W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 160
NM EAST OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 66W-82W. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CENTERED JUST N OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SUPPORTS A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM 20N69W TO 11N74W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXTENDS WITHIN 140 NM NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
COASTLINE. TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DEGENERATED TO A REMNANT LOW
AT 24/1500 UTC. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
INFORMATION. A NARROW UPPER-LEVEL ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDS SW
ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N22W TO
27N31W 28N39W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 24N BETWEEN 13W-41W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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