[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 22W AND 31W.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED MORE
CORRECTLY TO THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N61W 14N59W 9N56W
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN
59W AND 62W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W...TO THE SOUTH OF
17N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AMERICA
COUNTRIES OF HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NOTHING SIGNIFICANT INLAND. PRECIPITATION THAT
IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA MAY BE RELATED MORE CORRECTLY TO OTHER
FEATURES.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
SENGAL AND GUINEA...TO 12N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 12N19W TO
8N26W 6N33W 5N41W...AND 2N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF
42W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 75W...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
27N71W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY...AND IT CONTINUES FROM
27N71W TO 23N80W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO 22N90W JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CURVING TO 18N93W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS COVERS
THE AREA FROM GUATEMALA TO 20N BETWEEN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS MEXICO AND GUATEMALA...INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE IN THE REST OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN
200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO
26N80W AND 18N93W.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS AND
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...TO 20N98W IN MEXICO...TO 18N97W TOWARD THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE ICAO STATIONS KMZG...KVAF...AND
KGUL. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE
BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE
TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER
THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS IN THE
U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
STATIONARY FRONT 22N84W 21N91W 18N94W. EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 9 FEET TO 13 FEET TO
THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE WEST OF 93W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST
CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
FEET TO 9 FEET FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 86W AND 93W.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA TO 25N BETWEEN 67W AND 80W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 25N73W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...
TO 17N75W 12N75W...TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ALONG 75W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 22N BETWEEN 68W AND 80W...AND FROM
12N TO 16N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N73W...ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN HAITI...
TO 16N75W AND 13N75W. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THAT HAS
PERSISTED FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR MUCH OF
THE LAST 10 DAYS OR SO.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON TOP OF
HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE FIRST 24 HOUR TIME PERIOD. THE GFS
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL SPAN
HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS
THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA
BEYOND 85W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA WITHIN A
60 NM RADIUS OF 7N75W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE 1017 MB POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF LORENZO
IS NEAR 31N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM
29N TO 31N BETWEEN 45W AND 48W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 18N53W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
PARTS OF THE EASTERNMOST CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 26N BETWEEN
47W AND 63W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 52W/53W FROM 10N TO 15N.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 7N TO 15N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. OTHER CLOUDINESS THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N TO 23N
BETWEEN 46W AND 60W.

A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N13W TO 28N20W AND 26N32W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 13N. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 30W.

A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N36W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF
20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW LORENZO 1012 MB TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 32N47W...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 20 TO
25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 FEET TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF
30N BETWEEN 44W AND 47W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 46W AND 55W. A THIRD
FEATURE IS THE 24 HOUR FORECAST FOR A STATIONARY FRONT 31N63W
22N77W...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER
THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net