[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091155
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 09 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N27W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO
14N BETWEEN 23W AND 30W. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED...AND SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N31W 9N29W MOVING
WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 30W AND 34W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W TO THE SOUTH OF
20N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 14N37W 18N42W...AND FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 40W AND
45W.

THE POSITION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE WAS NOT MOVED
WESTWARD. IT WAS MAINTAINED ALONG 20N69W TO 15N71W TO LAKE
MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...BASED ON LONG-TERM
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE STRETCHES FROM THE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA
BORDER. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N68W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 23N70W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 17N74W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 9N78W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG HAS
DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SURROUNDS THE
REST OF HISPANIOLA IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N TO 22N
BETWEEN 60W AND 68W...ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND ISLANDS THAT ARE TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED MODERATE COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N TO 32N BETWEEN 56W AND 66W...AND
FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 67W AND 71W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 09/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO
THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN...IS 0.80 IN GUADELOUPE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA
NEAR 12N16W TO 11N20W...TO THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 11N27W...TO 9N35W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N35W TO
8N42W AND 4N49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
52W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE CAROLINAS...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA...
ACROSS FLORIDA...AND ULTIMATELY INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N78W TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N78W. A
COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 08/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.69 IN
MERIDA MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG TO
THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN LAND AND 94W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE LINE FROM 32N72W TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE LINE 29N81W 24N87W 21N97W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF
27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KVAF...KHQI...KCRH...AND KDLP. FAIR
SKIES/ CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING
REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

THE VISIBILITY IN PATTERSON LOUISIANA...IN SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL
LOUISIANA...IS LESS THAN ONE MILE WITH FOG. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS
ARE IN BOOTHVILLE IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...IN BILOXI
MISSISSIPPI...ACROSS PARTS OF THE ALABAMA COASTAL PLAINS...INTO
THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...FROM PERRY
WESTWARD...AND FROM BROOKSVILLE TO SARASOTA.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INCLUDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...

THE POSITION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE WAS NOT MOVED
WESTWARD. IT WAS MAINTAINED ALONG 20N69W TO 15N71W TO LAKE
MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...BASED ON LONG-TERM
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE STRETCHES FROM THE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA
BORDER. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N68W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 23N70W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 17N74W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 9N78W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG HAS
DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SURROUNDS THE
REST OF HISPANIOLA IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 67W AND 71W.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB AND FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED
RIDGE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH WILL CUT ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE THE
NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO
THE EAST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32N60W 26N60W 22N62W 17N66W 13N71W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N73W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO
8N81W IN PANAMA...THROUGH PANAMA...BEYOND NORTHWESTERN COSTA
RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 6N TO
10N BETWEEN 76W AND 83W...AND IN LAKE MARACAIBO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 24-
HOUR FORECAST OF EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8
FEET FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO
28N34W...TO A CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
20N46W...TO 13N48W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N33W AND 30N36W 28N44W. THE FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM
28N44W TO 29N50W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS AND
RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N28W 29N33W 28N40W 28N50W...BEYOND 30N54W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 24N50W 24N35W 27N27W BEYOND 32N23W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 30N35W 28N50W. EXPECT WINDS 20
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF
THE COLD FRONT. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N78W.
EXPECT WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET TO
THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF 79W. THE 48-HOUR FORECAST
CONSISTS OF A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 11N36W...A
POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 30
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 15N
BETWEEN 35W AND 39W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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