[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED OCT 09 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 10N26W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 24W AND
28W...FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 28W AND 31W...AND FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 31W AND 33W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 24W
AND 26W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N28W 13N28W 11N27W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PART
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH PRECIPITATION...AND SOME PRECIPITATION THAT
IS NEAR THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N26W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N42W 17N42W 12N41W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 15N TO 23N BETWEEN
39W AND 44W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N70W 15N72W 11N73W. THE
WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE STRETCHES FROM THE
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA
BORDER. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 28N69W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 23N70W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO
17N74W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 9N78W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
WARMING IN THE EARLIER SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
THAT WAS OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
WEAKENING AND/OR DISSIPATING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SURROUNDS HISPANIOLA IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 15N TO 32N BETWEEN 58W AND 68W...ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
ISLANDS THAT ARE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO.
ISOLATED MODERATE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS/THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TO 28N BETWEEN
68W AND 74W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 09/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.80 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF
SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL TO 10N26W...10N34W...AND 9N36W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 9N36W TO 8N42W 9N47W...AND 8N50W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE
FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE CAROLINAS...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...ACROSS
FLORIDA...AND ULTIMATELY INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N78W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL FLORIDA...TO THE WESTERN
TIP OF CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 08/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...IS
0.69 IN MERIDA MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN LAND AND
94W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE WEST OF 32N72W...AND IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF
27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

FAIR SKIES COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 28N81W 25N90W 21N97W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE
EAST OF THE 28N81W 21N97W LINE.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N71W IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 24N71W...THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HAITI...TO 16N74W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N64W TO A 1013 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N64W...TO 25N66W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 20N TO
30N BETWEEN 58W AND 66W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS IN THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS/THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ISOLATED
MODERATE AROUND SOUTHERN HAITI COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN
150 NM OF THE COAST BETWEEN 73W FOR COLOMBIA AND 16N81W
FOR NICARAGUA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO
THE EAST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32N60W 26N60W 22N62W 17N66W 13N71W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N73W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO
8N78W IN PANAMA...THROUGH PANAMA...THROUGH NORTHWESTERN COSTA
RICA...BEYOND NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA...ACROSS SOUTHERN
GUATEMALA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 75W AND
80W...AND ON BOTH SIDES OF PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG COVERS WESTERN HONDURAS...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF GUATEMALA. NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
GUATEMALA AND MEXICO...WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 14N93W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 30-
HOUR FORECAST OF EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8
FEET FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 69W AND 74W.

HISPANIOLA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N70W 15N72W 11N73W. THE
WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE STRETCHES FROM THE
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA
BORDER. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 28N69W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 23N70W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO
17N74W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 9N78W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
WARMING IN THE EARLIER SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
THAT WAS OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
WEAKENING AND/OR DISSIPATING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SURROUNDS HISPANIOLA IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 15N TO 32N BETWEEN 58W AND 68W...ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
ISLANDS THAT ARE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO.
ISOLATED MODERATE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS/THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TO 28N BETWEEN
68W AND 74W.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB AND FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED
RIDGE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH WILL CUT ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE THE
NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO
27N36W...TO A CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
20N45W...TO 15N46W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N33W AND 29N40W. THE FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 29N40W
TO 29N47W AND 30N51W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS
AND RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N29W 28N40W 27N47W...BEYOND 31N56W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 25N36W 29N25W BEYOND 32N23W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 31N34W 29N44W...THEN WEAKENING TO
30N51W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10
FEET TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. A SECOND 24-HOUR FORECAST
IS FOR A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO BE NEAR 31N79W. EXPECT
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE
NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF THE LOW CENTER. A 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N78W...WITH A COLD FRONT TO 26N80W AND
23N83W. EXPECT NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8
TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF 79W. THE 48-HOUR
FORECAST CONSISTS OF A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
11N34W... A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 15N TO THE
EAST OF 36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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