[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED OCT 09 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 10N27W EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND IN A REGION OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE AS DEPICTED
IN THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY. SPIRAL RAINBANDS ARE NOTICEABLE IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY
INCREASED WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS CONVECTION IS
FROM 06N-15N BETWEEN 23W-31W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE LOW
CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 18N30W TO 09N31W AND IS MOVING
W-NW NEAR 10-15 KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR IS ENGULFING THE NORTHERN
SECTOR OF THE WAVE WHERE CONVECTION IS BEING HINDERED. SOUTH OF
15N...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A REGION
OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE WHICH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 130 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 23N43W TO 14N43W AND IS MOVING
W NEAR 5 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A
MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM
18N-23N BETWEEN 41W-45W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N73W TO 11N74W AND IS MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP LAYER WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY
WIND SHEAR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
11N17W TO THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES NEAR
10N27W TO 08N35W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 08N35W TO 05N47W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE LOW...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 10W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OVER THE
BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WITHIN THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS TRANSITIONED FROM A COLD FRONT TO A STATIONARY
FRONT. THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR
30N77W...SW TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR
21N86W TO 18N93W IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 70 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50
NM WEST OF THE FRONT IN THE SE BASIN. A 1034 MB SURFACE HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES NEAR 44N72W WHICH EXTENDS A RIDGE
AXIS INTO THE GULF...JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. SURFACE RIDGING
ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE OF VERY DRY AIR IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER
ALMOST BASIN WIDE.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY UNTIL THURSDAY
MORNING. THEN THE PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER THE S-SE GULF IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WHILE THE PORTION OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC
TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE THE BASIN TIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN THE FAR NW BASIN...UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW FROM A RIDGE
CENTERED IN SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF
SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM
OFF THE COASTLINE OF HONDURAS W OF 85W. THIS CONVECTION
COINCIDES WITH A REGION OF VERY MOIST AIR SHOWN IN THE SSMI TPW
IMAGERY AND EXTENDS INLAND BELIZE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
NORTHERN GUATEMALA. IN THE SOUTHERN BASIN...THE MONSOON TROUGH
AXIS MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN PANAMA NEAR 09N82W TO NORTHERN
COLOMBIA NEAR 09N76W TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS S OF 10N. OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 20N73W TO 11N74W.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. ALSO THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP LAYER WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY WIND
SHEAR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION. EAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH...A WEAK RIDGE S OF 14N IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENT FLOW TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF
14N BETWEEN 63W-73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTENDS TO
INLAND PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A WESTWARD TRACK AND
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THURSDAY MORNING.

HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BEING
ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN BASIN AND A WEAK RIDGE S OF 14N. A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IS ENHANCING
SIMILAR CONVECTION OVER HAITI. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE ISLAND TONIGHT AS IT CONTINUES A WESTWARD TRACK...BUT A
MOISTURE SURGE IS TRAILING THIS WAVE WHICH MAY ENHANCE MORE
SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE
WESTERN BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WITHIN
THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS TRANSITIONED FROM A COLD FRONT TO A
STATIONARY FRONT. THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N77W...SW
TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W TO
18N93W IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 70
NM EAST OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST A 1013 MB LOW IS NEAR 29N66W
WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. IN THE NORTHERN CENTRAL
ATLC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N36W TO 27N43W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TO 28N49W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WEST OF THE FRONT TAIL...N OF 26N BETWEEN 47W-60W.
OTHERWISE...SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-26N BETWEEN 61W-65W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


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