[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 14N27W TO A 1011 MB LOW
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 05N27W AND MOVES WEST NEAR
5 KT. THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS
WITHIN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. MIDDLE-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 08N-13N
BETWEEN 22W-30W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N59W TO 10N59W...MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE IS WITHIN A MODERATE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT WHICH ALONG WITH STRONG SHEAR INHIBITS DEEP
CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 130 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST EAST OF PUERTO RICO WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N65W TO 10N64W...NEARLY STATIONARY. THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER LEVELS
WHICH IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE
NORTHERN SECTOR OF THE WAVE...100 NM WEST OF THE AXIS AND 50 NM
OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA AND ENTERS THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W...THEN CONTINUES ALONG 08N23W TO A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 07N27W TO 05N33W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES
FROM 05N33W TO 06N43W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 04N51W.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED
TSTMS ARE FROM 06N-12N E OF 17W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 20W-27W AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TO SE LOUISIANA TO THE NW GULF SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI NEAR 30N89W TO 25N94W TO
21N97W. THE REMNANTS OF KAREN ARE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
ARE ANALYZED AS A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 29N88W AND A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 25N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF KAREN ARE N
25N BETWEEN 84W-88W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 70 NM EAST OF
THE FRONT BETWEEN 24N-27N WHILE CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION
AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 170 NM EAST OF THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF S
OF 24N. WITHIN 24 HOURS...THE REMNANTS OF KAREN WILL BE ABSORBED
BY THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E-SE ACROSS THE
BASIN. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE MONDAY AFTERNOON...FROM WESTERN-CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
EXCEPT FOR THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN BASIN AND FAR EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...MOSTLY DRY AIR ABOUNDS BASIN WIDE IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE LEVELS WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. A REGION OF
MIDDLE-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NW OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
BETWEEN 77W-79W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER JAMAICA AND ADJACENT
SOUTHERN WATERS. THE AXIS OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST EAST OF
PUERTO RICO...ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS MOSTLY WITHIN 50 NM
OFF THE NORTHERN ISLAND COAST. A TROPICAL WAVES IS JUST OF EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF HIGH MOISTURE.
THIS WAVE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN LEWARD
ISLANDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE WAVE CURRENTLY EAST OF PUERTO RICO IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS WHILE THE WAVE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
WILL CONTINUE A WESTWARD TRACK TO BE POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE WAVE THEN IS
FORECAST TO MOVE W-NW TO BE NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

HISPANIOLA...
A MIDDLE-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN
AND WIND FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE CENTERED
IN THE ATLC NEAR 20N51W ARE GENERATING DIFFLUENCE OVER
HISPANIOLA TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE
ISLAND AND NORTHERN ADJACENT WATERS. RAINSHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BEING SUPPORTED BY
A FAVORABLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MORE RAIN OVER EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONTINUAL RAINSHOWERS MAY
CAUSE FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE SW NORTH ATLC CENTERED NEAR 29N71W
EXTENDS A TROUGH SW TO CUBA. THIS TROUGHINESS IS SUPPORTING
RAINSHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS CUBA AS WELL AS THE BAHAMAS FROM
21N-27N BETWEEN 72W-76W. THIS UPPER LOW ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N68W TO 29N69W WHICH IS GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 80 NM WEST OF ITS AXIS. A WEAK TROUGH IS
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO ALONG 26N64W TO 20N66W. A SECTOR OF UPPER-
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE JUST EAST OF THE TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 58W-64W. ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER EAST FROM 24N58W TO 20N61W WITH
TRAILING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 55W-60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


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