[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN OCT 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN WAS DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT LOW AT
06/1500 UTC. THE REMNANTS OF KAREN ARE CENTERED NEAR 28.1N 89.9W
AT 06/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 74 NM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER MOVING E AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35
KT. THIS WAS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER. EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE CENTER OF KAREN HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND IS NO LONGER WELL
DEFINED. THE COLD FRONT TO THE W WILL OVERTAKE THE REMNANTS OF
KAREN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 15N26W
TO 6N27W MOVING W-NW NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND IS WELL DEFINED IN THE LOW LEVEL
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 21W-31W.

TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 18N58W TO
10N58W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF
DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 18N65W TO 10N65W
MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA
OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AS
DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 13N17W AND CONTINUES TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N27W.
THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N29W AND CONTINUES
ALONG 5N32W 6N42W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN
17W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO OVER
TEXAS AND N MEXICO CLIPPING THE FAR NW GULF AND SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF AT 06/1500 UTC OVER EAST
ATCHAFALAYA BAY LOUISIANA ALONG 26N95W 25N97W TO INLAND OVER NE
MEXICO NEAR 24N98W THE NW TO ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OF
MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60
NM E OF THE FRONT S OF 27N AND CONTINUING S WITHIN 60 NM ALONG
THE COAST OF MEXICO TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. DENSE LOW
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE NW GULF W OF THE
FRONT TO INLAND OVER TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO IS BEING ENHANCED BY A BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE
THAT COVERS THE SW GULF S OF 26N W OF 92W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF EXTENDING FROM NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA TO
24N87W GENERATING SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 86W-89W. HIGH
PRESSURE IS BUILDING W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH
OVER W TEXAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. THE
REMNANTS OF KAREN WILL BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE NW GULF. FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT...FROM N/CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE MON NIGHT THEN WEAKEN AND
BECOME STATIONARY TUE. SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION
MON THROUGH WED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE SW GULF EXTENDS ACROSS THE W
CARIBBEAN S OF 20N W OF 79W. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN
THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 74W WHICH
IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF
64W TO ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE UPPER RIDGES ARE
NARROWING AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC AS IT
ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE
PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 19N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 74-81W. THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 9N FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA INTO
THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W OF 80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE E CONUS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL STRENGTHEN
E WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE TUE THROUGH THU.

HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IS GIVING THE ISLAND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. DAYTIME HEATING
COUPLED WITH THE INSTABILITY OF A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING JUST S
OF THE ISLAND WILL RESULT IN DAILY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE FLORIDA TO ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TO NORTH CAROLINA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVER THE W
ATLC W OF 70W ANCHORED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED
NEAR 29N71W AND NARROWING AS IT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 72W-77W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA ALONG 27N66W TO N OF PUERTO
RICO NEAR 21N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 23N65W TO 29N60W.
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N56W
COVERING THE CENTRAL ATLC S OF 30N BETWEEN 45W-63W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO 22N59W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 50W-
59W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL
ATLC BETWEEN 43W-60W ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 30N50W. AN
UPPER TROUGH DIPS S OVER THE E ATLC TO 12N BETWEEN 30W-43W
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N31W ALONG
22N27W TO 19N43W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF KAREN/COLD FRONT THAT ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA MON NIGHT THEN WEAKEN
AND BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS FAR W ATLC TUE. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WED AND THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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