[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON OCT 07 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS ALONG 28W/29W TO THE SOUTH OF 14N MOVING
WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 28W AND 31W...FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN
26W AND 28W...AND FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 28W AND 31W. SOME
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE AROUND MIDWEEK. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 KNOTS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W TO THE SOUTH
OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W.
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 9N TO 18N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N65W 15N67W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 61W AND 66W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH-
WESTERN SENEGAL NEAR 12N17W TO 10N21W 8N28W 6N31W AND 6N35W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N35W TO 7N52W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 16W
AND 18W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 17W AND 27W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 27W
AND 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL U.S.A. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 21N ALONG
97W/98W. A NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
87W FROM 26N TO 31N. THE 1007 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER
OF KAREN IS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 29.5N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 84W
AND 86W...AND FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 94W AND 98W ALONG THE
MEXICO COAST.

NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 15N TO 18N
BETWEEN 89W AND 96W FROM EASTERN GUATEMALA TO THE WESTERN
PARTS OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...INCLUDING IN THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN AN
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND
FLOW.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF
27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATION KHQI.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE
BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS COVER THE AREA FROM SLIDELL
TO NEW ORLEANS AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
AND COVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. RAIN MAY BE LINGERING
IN THE AREA OF ALABAMA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN
COVER FLORIDA FROM APALACHICOLA WESTWARD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...THE REMNANTS OF KAREN...NEAR
29N87W. A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 30N88W 21N97W. EXPECT NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET
TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N70W IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 26N74W...ACROSS SOUTH-
EASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR 15N76W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 70W FROM 27N TO
32N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH-
EASTERN CUBA BETWEEN 73W AND 76W...FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN
62W AND 64W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 29N TO 33N BETWEEN
65W AND 72W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
TO 30N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 74W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W TO THE SOUTH
OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W.
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 9N TO 18N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N65W 15N67W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 61W AND 66W.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING
AT 07/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.20 IN GUADELOUPE.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N71W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...
TO 7N74W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH 9N79W IN PANAMA...THROUGH 9N83W
IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...BEYOND THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR
10N85W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...REMNANT PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE IN WESTERN PANAMA AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. THE CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES IN THAT AREA HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS. THE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS THERE EARLIER
HAS BEEN DISSIPATING.

HISPANIOLA...

HISPANIOLA IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT CUTS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N76W. MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF HAITI...AND IN THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE
SURROUNDED BY ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST
ORIENTED RIDGE FOR THE NEARLY THE ENTIRE TIME. AN INVERTED
TROUGH STARTS TO DEVELOP AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 500 MB GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED
RIDGE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER EVENTUALLY IS
FORECAST TO BE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE
48 HOUR TIME PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS
THAT A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH WILL CUT
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 65W/66W FROM 21N TO 28N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 23N TO 29N BETWEEN 57W AND 65W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE
REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN
50W AND 66W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N36W TO 25N38W
AND 22N38W...TO 15N41W TO 11N42W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
30N35W 25N36W 21N38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 34N33W 30N33W 28N35W
25N36W 22N37W 14N40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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