[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT OCT 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM KAREN IS CENTERED NEAR 28.1N 91.7W AT 05/2100 UTC
OR ABOUT 100 NM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...MOVING NORTH AT 2
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. KAREN
CONTINUES TO HAVE AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER. NUMEROUS
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE EAST OF THE CENTER FROM 25N-
29N BETWEEN 89W-91W AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ELSEWHERE FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 86W-91W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N25W TO 11N24W AND MOVES W
AT ABOUT 15 KT. EVEN THAT THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE ITCZ...STRONG SHEAR IS INHIBITING
DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS. A SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS IS
NE OF THE AXIS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 19W-21W COINCIDING WITH AN
AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N53W TO 18N52W AND MOVES W-
NW AT ABOUT 10 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATE THE
WAVE IS WITHIN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WHICH ALONG WITH
STRONG SHEAR INHIBITS DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 130 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. SOUTH OF THE WAVE
AXIS...UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW COLLOCATED WITH AN AREA OF
MAXIMUM MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 46W-57W.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS LOCATED JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
FROM 12N60W TO 18N59W AND MOVES W NEAR 5 KT. THE WAVE LIES
WITHIN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. MIDDLE-LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW FROM AN ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED NEAR 16N60W SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 56W-61W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA AND ENTERS THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W...THEN CONTINUES ALONG 07N22W TO
06N30W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N30W TO 07N42W TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 06N57W. CONVECTION IS MINIMAL ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ EXCEPT AS NOTED ABOVE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE ONLY MAJOR CONCERN FOR THE GULF IS TROPICAL STORM KAREN
WHICH IS CENTERED ABOUT 100 NM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. SEE
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WATERS. DIFFLUENT FLOW FROM THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE SUPPORTS THE CONVECTION OF KAREN WHILE WESTERLY WIND
SHEAR KEEPS IT EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. EXCEPT FOR THE AREA
OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KAREN...MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVEL DRY
AIR ABOUNDS IN THE BASIN WHICH IS FAVORING FAIR
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE SE GULF S OF 26N E OF 87W.

KAREN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN 24
HOURS WHILE A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NW GULF. THE
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN BASIN S OF 11N AND THE SW WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...MODERATE MOISTURE ABOUNDS BASIN WIDE. THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF EXTENDS TO THE WESTERN-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WHILE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 10N48W COVERS THE CENTRAL-EASTERN BASIN.
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT FROM THESE TWO RIDGES IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 40 NM OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
CUBA AS WELL AS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 77W-87W. SIMILAR CONVECTION
IS IN THE SOUTHERN BASIN S OF 11N BETWEEN 78W-83W ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES SUPPORTING SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLANDS.
THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN BASIN TONIGHT AND WILL
BE AFFECTING PUERTO RICO DURING SUNDAY. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF THE WAVE WILL BE AFFECTING
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF EXTENDS TO THE WESTERN-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 10N48W COVERS THE CENTRAL-
EASTERN BASIN. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT FROM THESE TWO RIDGES IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BEING SUPPORTED BY A FAVORABLE UPPER-
LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
MORE RAIN OVER EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC STARTING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUAL RAINSHOWERS MAY CAUSE FLOODING AND
LANDSLIDES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH SW ATLC SUPPORTS
A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS. THE FIRST TROUGH IS ALONG 30N78W TO
ANDROS ISLAND NEAR 24N77W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 300 NM
EAST OF THE AXIS. THE SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N64W TO
20N64W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM EAST OF THE AXIS AND
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 57W-62W. A
1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 25N44W
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVES ALREADY DISCUSSED...A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW NORTH OF THE AREA AND
IS ALONG 30N33W TO 25N34W WITH NO CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS

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