[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN OCT 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN IS CENTERED NEAR 28.1N 91.9W AT
06/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 104 NM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
...STATIONARY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
KAREN CONTINUES TO HAVE AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
KAREN IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE
CENTER FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 85W-90W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 16N23W TO
5N26W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS WELL DEFINED AT LOW LEVELS
IN THE SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN
A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-14N BETWEEN 21W-29W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N54W TO 8N54W MOVING W AT 12 KT.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED
ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 47W-57W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 19N61W TO 10N61W TO
MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-18N BETWEEN 57W-
64W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA AND ENTERS THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 14N16W. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES TO 14N20W TO
8N23W TO 6N30W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N30W TO 7N44W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 4N52W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 29W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. CONVECTION AND SHOWERS
COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE NE GULF N OF 24N E OF 91W WHILE
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. AS OF
0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS JUST INLAND OVER TEXAS WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE E AND MERGE WITH KAREN IN 24 HOURS. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF
PRODUCING THE WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CENTER OF KAREN...WHILE
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NE GULF IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION THERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN MOVING W. SEE ABOVE.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA MOSTLY DUE TO A
MONSOON TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PERSISTS ALONG THE
S COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 78W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N76W.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT
DAYTIME HEATING TO AGAIN PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW ESPECIALLY SINCE A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL PREDOMINATELY BE FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 30N66W TO 23N66W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER A LARGE AREA E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 54W-66W MOSTLY DUE TO UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 26N44W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM
32N30W TO 28N35W TO 20N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 65W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IS E OF THIS TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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