[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM KAREN IS CENTERED NEAR 27.9N 91.8W AT 05/1800 UTC
OR ABOUT 115 NM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...STATIONARY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32
KNHC AND THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. KAREN CONTINUES TO HAVE
AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER ALTHOUGH AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF THE CENTER. A MUCH LARGER AREA OF STRONG
CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE SE FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 86W AND
90W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA ALONG
22W FROM 05N TO 12N AND IS MOVING W AT ABOUT 10 KT. THE LATEST
SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW LATITUDE WAVE
IS RELATIVELY EASY TO IDENTIFY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
LOCATED IN A NARROW BAND FROM 12.5N20W TO 10N23.5W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 51W/52W FROM 11N TO 20N AND IS
MOVING W 5-10 KT. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED AT THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG
60W FROM 12N TO 19N AND IS MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG AND UP
TO 3 DEGREES EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA AND ENTERS THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES TO 09N20W TO
06N29W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N29W TO 08N45W TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA AT 07N59W. CONVECTION IS MINIMAL ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ EXCEPT AS NOTED ABOVE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM KAREN IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. SEE
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
COVER THE EASTERN GULF. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED WELL INLAND OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE TEXAS GULF
COAST SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL THEN MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF. MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER ALL BUT THE FAR NW
GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SHARP MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM WESTERN HAITI
TO 15N76W TO CENTRAL PANAMA. WEST OF THE TROUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE
N TO NE WITH SPEEDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE BASED ON SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS. A BROAD MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN EAST OF ABOUT 73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COVER MOST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

HISPANIOLA...

DAYTIME HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASE OF CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS OVER HISPANIOLA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SERIES OF TROUGHS AND RIDGES COVERS THE ATLANTIC N OF ABOUT
18N. FIRST A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION POSITIONED IN THE VICINITY OF 30N70W. THE NEXT
FEATURE OF NOTE IS A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT COVERS THE
AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W WITH THE AXIS ALONG 58W. OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC A TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 43W AND COVERS
THE AREA N OF 17N BETWEEN 38W AND 48W. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 24N28W AND IS NEARLY
STATIONARY. FINALLY A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER
THE E ATLANTIC N OF 18N E OF 18W TO THE AFRICAN COAST. THERE ARE
THREE SURFACE TROUGHS OVER THE ATLANTIC...ALONG 76W FROM 23N TO
29N...ALONG 64W FROM 21N TO 29N...AND FROM 31N33W TO 24N38W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG THE
TROUGH AT 64W CONTINUING EASTWARD TO 60W. A 1019 MB HIGH CENTER
IS LOCATED AT 26N46W...MOVING N ABOUT 10 KT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB


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