[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT OCT 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KAREN IS CENTERED NEAR 27.1N 91.3W AT 05/0900 UTC
OR ABOUT 169 NM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
...OR ABOUT 156 NM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...MOVING NNW AT 7
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE SEE
LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MAITCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. KAREN
HAS AN EXPOSED CENTER WITH CONVECTION E OF THE CENTER DUE TO
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 87W-90W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 21N-30N BETWEEN 82W-90W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 13N20W TO
5N22W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE IS WELL DEFINED AT LOW
LEVELS IN THE SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS.  THE WAVE IS ALSO
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 19W-24W...AND FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 13W-
16W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N48W TO 16N51W TO 11N51W MOVING W
AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE
AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 19N59W TO
15N60W TO 11N60W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN
AND THE W TROPICAL ATLC BETWEEN 55W-63W AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 9N-17N BETWEEN 55W-63W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA AND ENTERS THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N16W. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES TO 8N23W TO
6N29W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N29W TO 7N50W TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA AT 7N59W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N
BETWEEN 38W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM KAREN IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. CONVECTION AND SHOWERS
COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE E GULF WHILE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE W GULF. A COLD FRONT IS WELL INLAND OVER N TEXAS. THIS
FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE TEXAS GULF COAST IN 24 HOURS.
KAREN IS FORECAST TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST OF LOUISIANA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N91W PRODUCING THE
SHEAR OVER KAREN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

TROPICAL STORM KAREN IS PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER W CUBA...THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL...THE NW CARIBBEAN... AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
N OF 18N BETWEEN 80W-90W. FURTHER E...A TROPICAL WAVE IS
APPROACHING THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
PERSIST OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. A MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
PERSIST OVER N COLOMBIA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF
78W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N73W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE
NE CARIBBEAN SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCING CONVECTION. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER HISPANIOLA BUT SHOWERS
PERSIST. EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING TO AGAIN PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW ESPECIALLY SINCE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS FROM 29N76W TO 24N76W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A WEAK
1014 MB LOW IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 22N54W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. FURTHER E...A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N33W TO 26N37W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 60W-65W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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