[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT OCT 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KAREN IS CENTERED 26.4N 90.5W AT 05/0300 UTC OR
ABOUT ABOUT 178 NM S-SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AND ABOUT 200 NM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MOVING NNW AT 6 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MAITCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC
AND THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. KAREN HAS AN EXPOSED
CENTER WITH CONVECTION WELL E OF THE CENTER DUE TO STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 85W-88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 83W-90W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 15N20W
TO 7N19W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE IS WELL DEFINED AT LOW
LEVELS IN THE SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS.  THE WAVE IS ALSO
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 19W-22W...AND FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 13W-
16W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N48W TO 11N49W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED
ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 19N56W
THROUGH A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 14N58W TO 12N58W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT
COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN AND THE W TROPICAL ATLC BETWEEN 55W-63W.
THIS IS ALSO DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-17N BETWEEN 55W-
63W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA AND ENTERS THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 14N16W. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES TO 9N22W TO
7N28W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N28W TO 6N46W TO 9N60W. BESIDES
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 23W-25W...AND FROM 6N-
10N BETWEEN 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE TROPICAL STORM KAREN. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. CONVECTION AND SHOWERS COVERS THE
MAJORITY OF THE E GULF OF MEXICO WHILE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE W GULF. A COLD FRONT IS WELL INLAND OVER N TEXAS. THIS
FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE TEXAS GULF COAST IN ABOUT 30
HOURS. KAREN IS FORECAST TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST OF
LOUISIANA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N91W
PRODUCING THE SHEAR OVER KAREN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

TROPICAL STORM KAREN IS PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER W CUBA...THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL...THE NW CARIBBEAN... AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
N OF 18N BETWEEN 80W-90W. FURTHER E...A TROPICAL WAVE IS
APPROACHING THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
PERSIST OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. A MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
PERSIST OVER N COLOMBIA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF
78W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N73W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE
NE CARIBBEAN SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCING CONVECTION. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DIMINISHING OVER HISPANIOLA BUT SHOWERS
PERSIST. EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING TO AGAIN PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW ESPECIALLY SINCE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 29N74W TO 24N73W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A WEAK
1015 MB LOW IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 21N53W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. FURTHER E...A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N34W TO 24N40W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 60W-65W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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