[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021200
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM JERRY IS CENTERED NEAR 28.1N 44.0W AT 02/0900 UTC
OR ABOUT 1110 NM E OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1040 NM WSW OF THE
AZORES MOVING W AT 1 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45
KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 39W-
45W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM COASTAL HONDURAS NEAR 16N84W INTO A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 18N85W TO 24N84W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE FALLS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 19N83W PRIMARILY ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY IN THE AREA OF MAXIMUM UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND TROUGH
AXIS ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
OVER A LARGE AREA FROM 15N-24N BETWEEN 79W-86W. THIS DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR OR
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER
TODAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT OR
THURSDAY. SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IT IS LIKELY THAT
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL LIMIT DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE WEEKEND. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MAY AFFECT THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...PARTS OF CUBA...AND PARTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTERNOON.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N34W TO 17N34W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK SURFACE TO 700 MB
TROUGHING WITH A 700 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED ALONG
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS
NOTED AT THIS TIME...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 09N-17N
BETWEEN 28W-37W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N44W TO 21N45W MOVING W-NW AT 10-15
KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE CONTINUES TO STRETCH NORTHWARD INTO THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM JERRY FROM A
MAXIMUM NEAR 11N40W TO 20N43W. WITH WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT NOTED N
OF 15N...CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE REMAINS LIMITED AT THIS TIME
WITH ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE
VICINITY OF 18N44W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO
12N28W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
12N39W TO 09N45W TO 06N56W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 17W-25W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-12N BETWEEN 45W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES OVER THE GULF THIS
MORNING BETWEEN A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED INLAND OVER
NORTHERN LOUISIANA NEAR 33N93W AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN GULF TO 28N84W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT MOST OF THIS FLOW ALOFT REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY...HOWEVER
DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE
BASIN...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE MARGINAL MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS NW OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W TO 23N98W. FARTHER SOUTHEAST...WITH A
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALREADY IN PLACE...
MOISTURE AND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF THE SE GULF WATERS...FLORIDA STRAITS...AND FLORIDA
KEYS THIS MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY S OF 26N E OF 86W. LOOKING AHEAD...THE
SURFACE TROUGH NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST
THEN NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SE GULF BY EARLY THURSDAY AND BEGIN IMPACTING THE NORTHERN
GULF WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N83W AND IS PROVIDING FOR AN OVERALL
DIFFLUENT ATMOSPHERE W OF 75W. AT THE SURFACE BENEATH THIS UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 85W WITH A 1009
MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 18N. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN 78W-
87W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN FALLS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND OVERALL STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OCCURRING
WITHIN E-SE TRADES E OF 74W. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOST
CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 14N BETWEEN 59W-66W.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY NORTHERLY DRY AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER HISPANIOLA THIS MORNING. THIS IS
PROVIDING FOR AN OVERALL TRANQUIL MORNING PERIOD...HOWEVER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING IN ACROSS THE ISLAND FROM THE EAST. E-SE TRADES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH
THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PROVIDING FOR A PASSING SHOWER HERE AND
THERE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...AND
INSTABILITY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN
THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST
NORTH ATLC NEAR 42N59W SW TO 32N68W TO A BASE NEAR 27N75W. WHILE
PRIMARILY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 28N63W DOMINATES SURFACE CONDITIONS...THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS GENERATING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM
23N-32N BETWEEN 60W-74W. TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS AREA...THE
ADVECTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND BAHAMAS THIS MORNING
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN
75W-85W. OTHERWISE...ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...TROPICAL STORM
JERRY CONTINUES TO SPIN IN THE VICINITY OF 28N44W REMAINING
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN
NORTH ATLC N OF 25N E OF 48W. AT THE SURFACE HOWEVER ACROSS THE
EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 26N34W IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS
FROM 18N-32N E OF 38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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