[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 020550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED OCT 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM JERRY IS CENTERED NEAR 28.1N 43.7W AT 02/0300 UTC
OR ABOUT 1120 NM E OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1025 NM WSW OF THE
AZORES MOVING W AT 1 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45
KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 40W-
45W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM COASTAL NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W INTO A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 16N84W TO 22N83W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE FALLS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 19N81W PRIMARILY ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY IN THE AREA OF MAXIMUM UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND TROUGH
AXIS ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS
GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER A LARGE
AREA FROM 13N-25N BETWEEN 76W-86W. THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NW TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N32W TO 15N31W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK SURFACE TO 700 MB
TROUGHING WITH A 700 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED ALONG
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS
NOTED AT THIS TIME...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 05N-15N BETWEEN 28W-39W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N41W TO 20N44W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE CONTINUES TO STRETCH NORTHWARD INTO THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM JERRY FROM A
MAXIMUM NEAR 11N38W TO 22N42W. WITH WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT NOTED
14N...CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE REMAINS LIMITED AT THIS TIME
WITH ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM 05N-10N
BETWEEN 41W-45W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N16W TO
11N29W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
10N45W TO 09N60W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 14W-22W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-12N BETWEEN 24W-27W...AND FROM
06N-11N BETWEEN 45W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES OVER THE GULF THIS
EVENING BETWEEN A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED INLAND OVER
NORTHERN LOUISIANA NEAR 32N93W AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS
OF THE SE GULF TO 25N84W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
MOST OF THIS FLOW ALOFT REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY...HOWEVER DUE TO
PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN...LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LIFT IS GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS NW OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
30N87W TO 23N95W. FARTHER SOUTHEAST...WITH A FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALREADY IN PLACE...MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE SE
GULF WATERS...FLORIDA STRAITS...AND FLORIDA KEYS THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY SE
OF A LINE FROM 27N82W TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST NEAR
22N87W. LOOKING AHEAD...THE SURFACE TROUGH NOTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SE GULF BY EARLY THURSDAY AND
BEGIN IMPACTING THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N81W AND IS PROVIDING FOR AN OVERALL
DIFFLUENT ATMOSPHERE W OF 74W. AT THE SURFACE BENEATH THIS UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 84W WITH A 1008
MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 16N. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 13N-
23N BETWEEN 77W-87W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND OVERALL STABLE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED
SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN E-SE TRADES E OF 70W. THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS MOST CONCENTRATED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SE
CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 13N E OF 66W.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY NORTHERLY DRY AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING. THIS IS
PROVIDING FOR AN OVERALL TRANQUIL OVERNIGHT PERIOD...HOWEVER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING IN ACROSS THE ISLAND FROM THE EAST. E-SE TRADES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH
THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PROVIDING FOR A PASSING SHOWER. GIVEN
THE PERSISTENCE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND PEAK DAYTIME HEATING
AND INSTABILITY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST
NORTH ATLC NEAR 42N60W SW TO 32N69W TO A BASE NEAR 28N76W. WHILE
PRIMARILY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 28N64W DOMINATES SURFACE CONDITIONS...THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS GENERATING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM 24N-33N BETWEEN
59W-74W. TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS AREA...THE ADVECTION OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO
IMPACT THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND BAHAMAS THIS EVENING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 75W-
84W. OTHERWISE...ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...TROPICAL STORM JERRY
CONTINUES TO SPIN IN THE VICINITY OF 28N44W REMAINING EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN NORTH
ATLC N OF 27N E OF 45W. AT THE SURFACE HOWEVER S OF 27N...A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N30W IS
PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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