[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020007
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON OCT 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY AT 01/2100 UTC IS NEAR 28.1N
43.5W...NEARLY IN THE MIDDLE OF BERMUDA AND THE AZORES. JERRY IS
STATIONARY AT THE MOMENT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 50 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT JERRY THAT
ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCPAT1...AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 27N TO 30N
BETWEEN 41W AND 44W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 83W FROM CUBA TO JUST EAST OF
NICARAGUA. A WEAK 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE
TROUGH NEAR 16N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 79W AND 84W AS WELL AS
OVER CUBA. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG
GRADIENT WITH VERY MOIST CONDITIONS NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS AND
SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER TO ITS WEST OVER YUCATAN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10
KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MAY AFFECT
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN
9N AND 13N.  THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY A
MODERATE MAXIMUM JUST TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N43W 10N40W MOVING
WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER STRONG DEPICTION OF
THIS WAVE WITH A DISTINCT MAXIMUM OF MOISTURE ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH QUITE DRY CONDITIONS EAST OF THE
AXIS. THIS SYSTEM HAS LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 17N16W TO 15N22W. THERE IS A BREAK IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ WITH THE TWO WAVES MENTIONED ABOVE. THE ITCZ
OCCURS FROM 10N43W TO 10N61W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 7N TO 12N EAST OF 20W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM
SOUTH OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A FLAT SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTHEAST
OF A WEAK RIDGE IS PRODUCING LIGHT E TO SE WINDS OVER MOST OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 15-20 KT WINDS IN THE
EXTREME NW GULF. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG NORTH OF 27N WEST OF 92W.  WHILE THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURE...THIS CONVECTION IS ASSISTED BY THE
VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER TEXAS-LOUISIANA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 36-
HOUR FORECAST OF A LOW TO BE NEAR 23N87W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THIS FEATURE MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. EXPECT
SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET WITHIN
150 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NE QUADRANT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...PRODUCING TRADEWINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT.  SEE ABOVE FOR
DISCUSSION OF SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ASIDE FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT EAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET N OF 20N
BETWEEN 82W AND 94W.

HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL FEATURES IN THE VICINITY. SOME DIURNAL
AFTERNOON DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE ISLAND FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTENSIVE OR
LONG-LASTING.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N78W TO 31N76W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
ASIDE FROM THAT MENTIONED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVES AND
TROPICAL STORM JERRY.

A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N64W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 27N
BETWEEN 54W AND 71W.

A SECOND 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N34W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 28N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 38W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM JERRY IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF
THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA


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