[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE OCT 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY AT 02/1500 UTC IS NEAR 28.2N
43.9W...NEARLY IN THE MIDDLE OF BERMUDA AND THE AZORES. JERRY IS
STATIONARY AT THE MOMENT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1009 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 45 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT JERRY THAT
ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCPAT1...AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 28N
TO 30N BETWEEN 42W AND 44W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ABOUT 100 NM TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF JERRY. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND IT SURROUNDS JERRY FROM 22N TO 31N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM
26N TO 28N BETWEEN 37W AND 39W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 85W...FROM 24N IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO EASTERN
HONDURAS. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR
18N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO
22N/23N IN WESTERN CUBA BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
11N79W 13N81W 15N82W. THIS LINE OF PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE
BIGGER AREA OF NUMEROUS STRONG PRECIPITATION THAT IS TO THE
NORTH OF 15N. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SECTION OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IT IS
LIKELY THAT STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL LIMIT DEVELOPMENT AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MAY AFFECT
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...PARTS OF CUBA...AND PARTS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTERNOON.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W TO THE SOUTH OF
17N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE WAS REPOSITIONED IN
ORDER TO AGREE MORE WITH THE LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 15N
BETWEEN 36W AND 40W...AND FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 36W AND 38W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE CURVES ALONG 20N47W 15N43W
10N41W MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS. THIS POSITION AGREES WITH
THE LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 11N43W 15N43W 18N44W 19N45W 21N46W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF
SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL TO 11N20W AND 12N27W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 12N27W TO 12N35W 10N42W 6N50W...TO THE COAST OF THE BORDERS
OF FRENCH GUIANA AND NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 4N51W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 17W
AND 19W...AND FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 22W AND 26W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 45W
AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN
15W AND 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...INTO COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS...INTO NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO NEAR 25N100W...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BORDER.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS FROM FLORIDA TO
TEXAS...TO THE NORTHWEST OF 30N85W 27N90W 26N97W...AND INLAND IN
TEXAS FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 93W TO THE
SOUTH OF 22N. THE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 88W.
THIS MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 85W SPECIAL FEATURES
SURFACE TROUGH AND 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATION KGVX. A
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATION KMDJ.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING
REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS COVER TEXAS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF
COAST SOUTHWARD. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS AT THE NAVAL AIR
STATION IN KINGSVILLE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS FROM FLORIDA TO
TEXAS...TO THE NORTHWEST OF 30N85W 27N90W 26N97W...AND INLAND IN
TEXAS FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W...FROM PORT LAVACA TO
ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...AND IN
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT
RAIN ARE FOUND ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE AND THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN IN LOUISIANA...IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...TO
APALACHICOLA IN FLORIDA. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED AT THE
TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS FOUND IN
NAPLES FLORIDA. A MIDDLE LEVEL AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING
ARE FOUND AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 12-
HOUR FORECAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH TO BE ALONG 87W...WITH A 1007
MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
22N87W. EXPECT WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...AND SEA HEIGHTS TO
9 FEET...WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW
CENTER. EXPECT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 21N TO 26N TO THE EAST OF THE
TROUGH TO 84W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 23N56W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 19N61W...TO 15N66W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO NORTHWESTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 10N/11N ALONG 69W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 69W AND 75W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N54W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 18N62W TO 14N69W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE
DISSIPATING/WEAKENING FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W...TO
THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THIS AREA...THAT IS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-
TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
02/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...ARE 0.58 IN GUADELOUPE...0.35
IN KINGSTON...0.26 IN CURACAO...0.11 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N75W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 8N73W IN
SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ANY PRECIPITATION IS TRAILING THE PRECIPITATION
THAT IS RELATED TO THE 85W SPECIAL FEATURES SURFACE TROUGH.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT EAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 16N
BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. THE 6-HOUR FORECAST INDICATES THAT A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE ALONG 97W WITH AN EMBEDDED 1008 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 19N86W. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 18N TO THE EAST
OF THE TROUGH TO 82W.

HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE 500 MB GFS
MODEL SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
RIDGE FOR THE START OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HISPANIOLA WILL END UP IN A COL POINT FOR MUCH OF THE 48
HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS
THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24
HOURS. A TROUGH WILL CUT ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST AND
COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 25N62W TO 21N64W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 32N75W 30N78W 27N79W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
33N62W 30N61W 28N61W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 69W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG  ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 27N
BETWEEN 73W AND 81W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 27N TO
34N BETWEEN 64W AND 78W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 01/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...ARE
0.08 IN BERMUDA AND 0.15 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.

A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 24N63W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 27N
BETWEEN 54W AND 71W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N17W TO 30N23W 29N30W AND 29N37W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 22W AND 38W.

A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N29W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO
28N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 38W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM JERRY IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF
THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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