[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 270604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 27 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/27W TO THE SOUTH OF
18N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 24W AND 29W. THE WAVE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE
FOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO FORM WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/43W TO THE SOUTH OF
25N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N TO
14N BETWEEN 40W AND 47W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N52W
DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN
50W AND 55W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
66W/67W TO THE SOUTH OF 23N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 23N
BETWEEN 63W AND 70W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES AS OF
27/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.15 IN GUADELOUPE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/80W TO THE SOUTH OF
21N MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW IS MOVING ON TOP OF THE WAVE. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 18N80W 15N84W ALONG THE BORDER OF EASTERN HONDURAS/
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 16N17W TO
11N27W 13N38W 11N50W 10N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 8N TO 11N TO THE EAST OF 17W...FROM 7N TO 10N
BETWEEN 30W AND 35W...AND FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 39W AND 41W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 15N
BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN MEXICO NEAR 22N100W. THIS IS
THE REMNANT OF FERNAND. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 96W AND 99W IN THE COASTAL WATERS
AND COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI TO
26N95W AND 19N96W NEAR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KBQX...KCRH...AND KIPN. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED DURING THE LAST HOUR OR SO AT KHQI AND KEIR. A
VISIBILITY OF ONE MILE OR LESS AND HAZE ARE BEING REPORTED AT
THE ICAO STATION KEMK. FAIR SKIES/ CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED IN BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS ARE AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KINGSVILLE...BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS ARE AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN CORPUS CHRISTI. MIDDLE
LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER PARTS OF THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
COVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL LOUISIANA. BROKEN
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED AT PERRY FLORIDA. BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS ARE AT PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR
LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT SOUTHEAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF
25N TO THE WEST OF 92W FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 65W...TO THE BAHAMAS
AND FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO
29N72W TO 28N79W...TO A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N80W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N84W. CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW AROUND THE 25N80W CENTER COVERS THE BAHAMAS/ATLANTIC
OCEAN...FLORIDA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 19N TO 29N BETWEEN 76W AND 90W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 30N66W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 30N66W TO 29N70W 28N76W 26N81W IN SOUTH FLORIDA.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 210 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W 27N70W 24N80W
24N83W 20N90W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
66W/67W TO THE SOUTH OF 23N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 23N
BETWEEN 63W AND 70W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES AS OF
27/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.15 IN GUADELOUPE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/80W TO THE SOUTH OF
21N MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW IS MOVING ON TOP OF THE WAVE. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 18N80W 15N84W ALONG THE BORDER OF EASTERN HONDURAS/
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 8N80W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND 10N86W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA BETWEEN LAKE MARACAIBO AND THE BORDER WITH COLOMBIA
FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE
SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 77W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS
20 KNOTS OR LESS AND THE SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 15N TO 17N
BETWEEN 72W AND 77W FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

HISPANIOLA...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS
SHIFTED WESTWARD AND WEAKENED WITH TIME. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
66W/67W TO THE SOUTH OF 23N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 23N
BETWEEN 63W AND 70W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES AS OF
27/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.15 IN GUADELOUPE. THE
TROUGH IS MOVING CLOSER AND CLOSER TO HISPANIOLA.

THE GFS FORECASTS FOR 700 MB...500 MB...AND 250 MB SHOW THAT
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N43W 26N43W
223N39W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N TO 23N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THIS AREA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 29N56W 26N70W...TO
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...
INTO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N81W...TO COASTAL HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 41W AND 48W FOR THE NEXT 18
HOURS OR SO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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