[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262343
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNAND WAS DOWNGRADED AT 26/2100 UTC. THE
REMNANTS OF FERNAND IS CENTERED NEAR 20.6N 98.5W AT 26/2100 UTC
ABOUT 65 NM W-SW OF TUXPAN MEXICO MOVING W-NW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 24N W OF 95W TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO. THIS WAS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM
19N22W TO A WEAK 1009 MB LOW NEAR 9N 25W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 24N41W TO 14N41W
MOVING NW 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 20N76W TO 10N78W
MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP
MOISTURE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 16N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 11N21W THROUGH THE
LOW/TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 9N25W 12N40W 8N52W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
8N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 27W-34W AND FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 40W-52W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 52W-61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF W OF 90W AND IS ANCHORED NEAR
ALONG THE NE MEXICO COAST JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. SCATTERED
TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 26N W OF
91W TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS S FLORIDA TO TO 24N88W. THIS IS GIVING
THE GULF WATERS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO JUST N OF TAMPA AND S OF
FLORIDA KEYS E OF 82W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE
GULF ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH OVER N GEORGIA. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE AND GREATLY IMPROVED MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY TUE
NIGHT AND WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
W CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED NORTHERLY FLOW W OF 84W AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM COSTA RICA ACROSS JAMAICA TO E
CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE W OF
THE UPPER TROUGH FROM 11N-14N W OF 81W TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA
AND FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 79W-83W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W
ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER CUBA AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST W OF 78W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR
10N75W ALONG 10N78W TO ACROSS W PANAMA/COSTA RICA NEAR 9N82W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF
11N W OF 77W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA TO S NICARAGUA. A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 65W FROM 14N-21N
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF 14N BETWEEN 62W-68W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE W AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT THROUGH WED AS THE CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER INTO E CARIBBEAN THU.

HISPANIOLA...
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE DOTTING THE ISLAND THIS
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT IS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU.
THIS INCREASES THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NE CARIBBEAN
AND PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND TUE THROUGH THU.
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY GENERATE MORE
INTENSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY ACTIVITY DIMINISHING
BEYOND THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC NARROWS AS IT CROSSES THE W
ATLC THROUGH 32N69W TO S FLORIDA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE SUPPORTING
A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS BERMUDA ALONG 29N71W
29N77W TO OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SCATTERED
TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF THE FRONT
WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 29N75W TO OVER CUBA NEAR 23N80W
INCLUDING ALL OF S FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 69W-75W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS SE OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N62W TO
27N72W WITHIN ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM SE OF
THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES. STATIONARY FRONT
WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TUE. SURFACE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST
ALONG 28N/29N TUE THROUGH FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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