[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 271150
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 27 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/28W TO THE SOUTH OF
20N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 29W AND 32W. THE WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO FORM WELL TO THE EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5
DAYS.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/42W TO THE SOUTH OF
25N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE POSITION WAS HELD NEAR
THE POSITION AT 27/0000 UTC IN ORDER TO AGREE WITH THE LONG-TERM
SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 40W AND 49W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 10.5N52W
DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN
50W AND 55W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
67W/68W TO THE SOUTH OF 24N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 65W AND
72W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES AS OF 27/0000 UTC...
ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLE...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.15 IN GUADELOUPE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/82W TO THE SOUTH OF
22N MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW IS MOVING ON TOP OF THE WAVE. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 82W AND
85W...COVERING NORTHERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS.
ISOLATEED MODERATE IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF WESTERN JAMAICA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO
11N23W 13N36W 11N47W 10N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 13W AND 17W...FROM 8N TO 12N
BETWEEN 29W AND 35W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
12N TO 14N BETWEEN 40W AND 49W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 65W...TO THE BAHAMAS
AND FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO
29N72W TO 28N79W...TO A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N80W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N84W. CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW AROUND THE 25N80W CENTER COVERS THE BAHAMAS/ATLANTIC
OCEAN...FLORIDA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 19N TO 29N BETWEEN 76W AND 90W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 31N65W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 31N65W TO 30N72W...CURVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA TO 25N82W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS FROM THE COAST OF CUBA TO
25N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 31N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 56W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF
27N TO THE EAST OF 90W.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER REMNANT OF FERNAND HAS WEAKENED
AND DISSIPATED IN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 19N95W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST TO 23N98W
ALSO ALONG THE MEXICO COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN ALABAMA INTO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KMDJ AND KGVX. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER
THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED IN MCALLEN TEXAS. LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE OBSERVED IN THE CORPUS CHRISTI AREA
OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST REGION. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER PARTS OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN
AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 2 MILES WITH
FOG AT THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE GENERAL AIRPORT. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING
IS AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES
AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 12N TO 14N
BETWEEN 59W AND 61W...COVERING BARBADOS AND APPROACHING THE
ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 11N77W IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 10N83W IN COSTA RICA...
BEYOND 10N86W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA FROM 8N TO 11N
BETWEEN LAKE MARACAIBO AND 78W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 75W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

HISPANIOLA...
THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS
SHIFTED WESTWARD AND WEAKENED WITH TIME. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
67W/68W TO THE SOUTH OF 24N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 65W AND
72W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES AS OF 27/0000 UTC...
ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLE...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.15 IN GUADELOUPE. THE TROUGH SHOULD BE
CROSSING HISPANIOLA TODAY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION SURROUNDS
PUERTO RICO...IS TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...AND ALSO IT IS
REACHING EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS FORECASTS FOR 700 MB...500 MB...AND 250 MB SHOW THAT
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N43W 26N43W
223N39W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N TO 25N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THIS AREA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 29N53W 27N70W...TO
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...
INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO EL SALVADOR AND SOUTHERN HONDURAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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