[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE OFF AFRICA EXTENDS FROM 19N22W TO A 1010 MB LOW
NEAR 12N24W TO 8N24W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 26W-32W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 17N55W TO
8N56W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF
MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 52W-60W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER S GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM 23N89W TO
INLAND OVER GUATEMALA AT 14N90W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE THAT
COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 88W-94W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 16N16W TO THE 1010 MB LOW/TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 12N24W TO
12N36W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 12N36W TO 12N53W. A SMALL 1014 MB
LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE ITCZ NEAR 15N39W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW. BESIDES THE SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN
26W-32W ...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN
36W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE S GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N89W TO INLAND
OVER GUATEMALA AT 14N90W. SEE ABOVE. 10-15 KT SURFACE WINDS ARE
ROTATING AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. ELSEWHERE...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE E GULF E OF 87W...AND OVER W
CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N92W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF NEAR 29N95W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT
MORE CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 80W. ELSEWHERE...A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA ALONG 11N. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF 11N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND E CARIBBEAN. SOME SCATTERED SHOWEWRS ARE HOWEVER ABOUT TO
ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM THE ATLANTIC S OF 15N. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN.
ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE INTO THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

HISPANIOLA...
PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
POSSIBLY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N67W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A LARGE 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE E ATLANTIC N OF THE AZORES AT 43N30W PRODUCING EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW BETWEEN 20N-30N E OF 50W WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.
NO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE PRODUCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT TO DIP INTO
THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W AND PRODUCE CONVECTION OFF THE FLORIDA
COAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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