[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241052
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 19N23W TO
A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 12N25W TO 8N25W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 26W-32W.

TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 16N58W
TO 8N60W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF
MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 56W-60W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM 23N91W TO
BEYOND S GUATEMALA AT 13N90W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE ON
SSMI IMAGERY THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
MAINLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 80W-90W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AT
16N16W TO A 1009 MB LOW/TROPICAL WAVE AT 12N25W TO 12N32W TO
10N40W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N40W TO 9N50W TO 11N58W. A
SMALL 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE ITCZ NEAR 14N40W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW. BESIDES THE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 8N-
13N BETWEEN 26W-32W...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-
12N BETWEEN 40W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N91W TO
INLAND OVER GUATEMALA AT 13N90W. SEE ABOVE. 10-15 KT SURFACE
WINDS ARE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF WAVE AXIS.
FURTHER N...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER THE COAST OF SE LOUISIANA FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 87W-91W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. MORE SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE COAST OF NE MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO MATAMOROS. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N92W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE E GULF NEAR 29N95W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS OVER THE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL
WAVE TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER
THE N GULF DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE
W CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 80W. ELSEWHERE...A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA ALONG 11N. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF 12N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND E CARIBBEAN. SOME SCATTERED SHOWEWRS ARE HOWEVER ABOUT TO
ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM THE ATLANTIC. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA
NEAR 19N70W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. ALSO
EXPECT ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE INTO THE LESSER ANTILLES.

HISPANIOLA...
PRESENTLY SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES SW OVER THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF THE
AZORES AT 43N27W PRODUCING EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW BETWEEN 20N-30N
E OF 50W WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. NO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE
PRODUCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TAIL
END OF A COLD FRONT TO DIP INTO THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W AND
PRODUCE CONVECTION OFF THE FLORIDA COAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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