[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE OFF AFRICA EXTENDS FROM 15N21W THROUGH A 1010 MB
LOW NEAR 11N22W TO 7N23W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 16N53W TO
8N55W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF
MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 12N-
14N BETWEEN 54W-56W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER S GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM 22N88W TO
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 20N89W TO EL SALVADOR
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF
MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN AND GULF
OF MEXICO AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
WAVE REMAINS MOVING BENEATH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE E BAY OF
CAMPECHE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND AND WITHIN 30/45 NM ALONG COAST OF THE YUCATAN BETWEEN
87W-92W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 15N17W AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE 1010 MB LOW/TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 11N22W THEN 12N30W 10N41W TO 12.50W. A 1014 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 15N38W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 175
NM OF THE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60
NM OF LINE FROM 11N25W TO 12N28W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 25W-
41W AND FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 42W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE SW ATLC S OF 26N E
OF 84W. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE NE GULF ANCHORED NEAR
28N87W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA ALONG 28N89W TO 24N92W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N TO INLAND OVER THE N
GULF COAST E OF 89W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN UPPER LOW
IS CENTERED IN THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N91W COVERING THE S
GULF S OF 24N BETWEEN 81W-94W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N BETWEEN 81W-87W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF THIS EVENING. TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE SW GULF SAT AND SUN. THE SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE W REACHING THE TEXAS COAST BY SAT EVENING AND INLAND
ACROSS TEXAS AND NE MEXICO ON SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 16N87W TO CUBA
NEAR 21N81W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N
OF 18N W OF 77W TO OVER CUBA AND THE YUCATAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR
10N84W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM PANAMA NEAR 9N78W TO 16N84W. THIS
ACTIVITY IS BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED S OF THE MONA PASSAGE
COVERING THE AREA FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 64W-72W INCLUDING THE
ISLANDS BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 20N66W TO 25N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 65W-70W. THIS IS
LEAVING THE SE CARIBBEAN CLEAR THIS EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN ARE
STILL AFFECTING THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN LATE ON SAT AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
LATE ON MON.

HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON HEATING COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LOW S OF THE MONA
PASSAGE HAVE GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS
EVENING. THIS UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL TRACK W ACROSS THE ISLAND
AND BE W OF THE ISLAND BY EARLY SUN. THE INSTABILITY AND THUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE LATE SAT THROUGH MON
THEN INCREASE AGAIN AS THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
ISLAND LATE MON INTO TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE FAR W ATLC TO 70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N-31N W OF 79W TO
INLAND OVER FLORIDA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH N OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA EXTENDS A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
32N55W TO 26N63W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
THROUGH 32N57W TO 28N59W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 30N67W AND
A 1026 MB HIGH SE OF THE AZORES. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE SE
THROUGH SUN AND WEAKEN AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD TO
THE FAR N PORTION OF THE W ATLC. THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME
STATIONARY AND WEAKEN LATE SUN INTO MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
BEHIND IT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net