[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 18 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT
18/0300 UTC. T.D. ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 20.7N 37.7W AT 18/0300
UTC OR ABOUT 830 NM W-NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W-NW
AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUST TO 40 KT. PLEASE SEE
LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER IS TO THE S OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION THAT IS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 36W-38W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA EXTENDING FROM 12N17W
TO 5N18W DRIFTING W. THIS WAVE IS VERY LOW AMPLITUDE COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS WAVES. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE
AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N E OF 17W TO INLAND
OVER GUINEA BISSAU IN W AFRICA.

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM
20N59W TO 9N59W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN
AN AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 58W-
59W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 22N74W
TO 11N75W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. ACTIVITY W OF THE WAVE IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST THEN
RESUMES W OF TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N20W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N27W
12N37W THROUGH WEAK 1012 MB LOW NEAR 11N49W TO 11N52W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N59W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 55W-57W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 16W-26W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 42W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH S TEXAS TO NE MEXICO
NEAR TAMPICO AND SUPPORTING A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT
MEANDERS ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO THE GULF NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA ALONG 27N93W TO INLAND OVER NE
MEXICO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N TO INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS E OF 93W.
A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
EXTENDING FROM 28N91W TO OVER S MEXICO NEAR COATZACOALCOS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC HAS EXPANDED OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DOTTING THE SE GULF S OF 28N E OF 86W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO OVER THE E
GULF. SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE NW AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
MON. SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
THROUGH THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT W OF 75W AND
CENTERED NEAR 16N81W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO INLAND OVER CUBA BETWEEN 76W-85W.
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 9N/10N FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA
RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 76W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA TO
NICARAGUA. AN ELONGATED E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN. EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS THAT
DOT THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 12N E OF 67W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE W BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN ON SUN. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE E
CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE
THROUGH THU.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ISLAND AGAIN TONIGHT. THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS
GENERATING THESE SHOWERS IS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND WILL
CONTINUE W LESSENING SHOWERS ON SUN. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND LATE MON THROUGH WED INCREASING THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVIER OR MORE FREQUENT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 31N77W AND
EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 24N-28N W OF 78W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA. THE STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS N OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 30N W OF
79W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF HIGHS N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. A BROAD UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
24N49W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
26N-33N BETWEEN 50W-59W. THE N PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL
WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE SW ATLC TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN. THE N
PORTION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE CONTINUE W
AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE E CARIBBEAN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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