[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181141
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 18 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 20.7N 38.4W AT 18/0900
UTC OR ABOUT 870 NM W-NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W AT 8
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUST TO 40 KT. PLEASE SEE
LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ERIN IS VOID OF
ANY DEEP CONVECTION.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG COAST OF W AFRICA EXTENDING FROM A 1007
MB LOW OVER THE S PENINSULA OF SENEGAL NEAR 12.5N16W ALONG 9N17W
TO 4N18W DRIFTING W. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-13N E OF 18W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA.

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM
20N60W TO 9N60W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 91N-13N BETWEEN 59W-61W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE W OF THE WAVE TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES TO 62W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 22N76W
TO 11N77W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS MOVING BENEATH AN UPPER LOW GENERATING
THE ACTIVITY NEAR THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E ATLC OVER
THE 1007 MB LOW/TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 12.5N16W CONTINUING ALONG
6N25W TO 8N35W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO NEAR
10N46W. A WEAK 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N50W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120
NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 18W-27W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN
43W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH S TEXAS TO NE MEXICO
NEAR TAMPICO AND SUPPORTING A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT
MEANDERS ALONG THE N GULF COAST INTO THE GULF WATERS NEAR
PENSACOLA FLORIDA ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO A DEEPENING
1012 MB LOW NEAR 29N91W ALONG 26N95W TO INLAND OVER NE MEXICO
OVER LAGUNA MADRE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 29N
TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN 87W-91W. A SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM 26N93W ALONG
21N94W TO OVER S MEXICO NEAR COATZACOALCOS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 22N93W
26N90W TO 29N89W AND S OF 22N W OF 92W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS AND AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO OVER THE E GULF. THE
LOW WILL INLAND OVER THE N GULF TODAY. SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
W TO INLAND NE MEXICO AND FAR S TEXAS MON NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THROUGH THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN W OF 77W AND IS
CENTERED NEAR 16N82W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO INLAND OVER CUBA BETWEEN 74W-83W.
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 9N/10N FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA
RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF
13N W OF 75W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA TO NICARAGUA. AN ELONGATED
E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN 63W-69W. CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE W BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN TODAY. ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN TODAY AND MON
AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH THU.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
ACROSS HAITI THIS MORNING AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER E
CUBA. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDUCED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MON
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE DEEP MOISTURE SUN NIGHT
AND MON BEFORE THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE ISLAND
EARLY TUE THROUGH THU INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVIER OR
MORE FREQUENT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED N OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N75W TO ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER LOW IN THE W
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS N TO OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N TO OVER CUBA
BETWEEN 74W-80W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF
HIGHS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A BROAD UPPER LOW IS IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N50W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF HISPANIOLA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 66W-72W AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-
30N BETWEEN 54W-61W. THE N PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SW ATLC THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE N PORTION OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W
THROUGH THE SW ATLC S OF 21N THROUGH THU. THE BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE WILL LIFT TO JUST N OF THE AREA WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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