[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180021
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 17 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN AT 17/2100 UTC IS NEAR 21.0N
37.0W...ABOUT 920 MI...1480 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
ERIN IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 AND THE
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-24N
BETWEEN 35W-38W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 12N17W TO
4N17W MOVING W AT 10 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 7N17W. A 1022 UTC ASCAT PASS DEPICTED THE LOW CENTER
WITH 25 KT WINDS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 13W-25W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 20N57W TO
10N57W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E
OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 22N72W TO
15N73W TO 11N72W MOVING W AT 15 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...E CUBA...JAMAICA...
AND N COLOMBIA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N15W TO 7N17W TO 6N27W TO 10N34W TO 12N44W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 12N44W TO 12N52W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA AT 8N59W. BESIDES
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 42W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N91W 21N93W 18N94W. A
WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR
21N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER
FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 91W-96W. FURTHER N...A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT IS OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT
31N87W TO SE LOUISIANA AT 29N90W TO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
AT 26N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN
87W-93W. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
FLORIDA N OF 26N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE BASE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW GULF AND E TEXAS WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 88W
WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. EXPECT THE LOW TO DRIFT
W AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LOW HAS A LOW CHANCE
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ALSO
EXPECT THE FRONT TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 72W/73W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER HISPANIOLA
...E CUBA...AND JAMAICA FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 69W-80W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 72W-
76W. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA AT 8N76W TO COSTA
RICA AT 10N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N
BETWEEN 80W-86W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N80W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N61W. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W AND BE THE
DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCER. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH.

HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER HISPANIOLA PRODUCING CONVECTION. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE CONVECTION FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE
TO EXIT THE ISLAND...THEN MORE CONVECTION WILL ADVECT OVER THE
ISLAND FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COASTS WITH SHOWERS. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N55W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A 1018
MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N31W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 28N33W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
120 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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