[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT JAN 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 8N13W TO 7N16W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 4N28W 4N40W
TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN
26W-30W AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 27W-38W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE ITCZ AXIS TO
7N BETWEEN 40W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OUT OF THE PLAIN STATES TO OVER THE E
CONUS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AT
28/0300 UTC IS STATIONARY ACROSS S FLORIDA BETWEEN FORT LAUDERDALE
AND EVERGLADES CITY ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS TO ALONG THE N
COAST OF CUBA TO INLAND OVER THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT OVER THE YUCATAN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM W
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE N GULF AND A SURFACE RIDGE IS
BUILDING OVER THE GULF W OF THE FRONT WITH A 1019 MB HIGH OFF
LOUISIANA NEAR 28N90W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE SE CONUS THIS
WEEKEND THEN WILL PUSH THE WEAKENING FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER S.
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE NW GULF LATE MON
THROUGH WED.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE
BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW AREA WHERE THE STATIONARY
FRONT OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO IS DRAWING MOISTURE ALOFT THROUGH
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 20N W OF 84W. THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 75W-84W AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG
THE COAST OF VENEZUELA BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE ABC
ISLANDS. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SUN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS S FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE W ATLC AT 28/0300 UTC NEAR 32N74W TO 27N80W ACROSS S
FLORIDA AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC ARE DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB
HIGH NEAR 30N57W GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. AN UPPER
TROUGH DIPS S OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-50W
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N35W TO 23N36W
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF
23N BETWEEN 30W-40W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE FAR E ATLC E OF
30W ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. COLD
FRONT IN THE W ATLC WILL REACH FROM 32N74W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
SAT NIGHT THEN WEAKEN THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS E
REACHING FROM 32N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY SUN NIGHT INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC ON MON. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE CONUS WILL SHIFT E TO ALONG
THE COAST BY EARLY TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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