[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI JAN 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SRN
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W AND CONTINUES W TO 6N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 6N16W TO 3N30W TO BRAZIL NEAR 3N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 23W-26W...AND FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN
34W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM VERO BEACH FLORIDA NEAR
28N81W TO CANCUN MEXICO NEAR 21N87W TO N GUATEMALA NEAR 18N90W.
RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DETECTION DEPICTS SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT S OF 24N TO INCLUDE THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 28N90W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. 10-15 ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE
NRN GULF OF MEXICO. 10-15 KT S WINDS ARE OVER S FLORIDA AND THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW IS OVER THE GULF.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE FRONT.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DRIFT TO S FLORIDA...WHILE THE TAIL
END OF THE FRONT RETROGRADES BACK N TO THE NRN YUCATAN PENINSULA.
ALSO EXPECT 10-15 KT N SURFACE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE GULF NE OF
THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CANCUN MEXICO NEAR 21N87W TO N GUATEMALA
NEAR 18N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
FRONT. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 65W-82W MOVING W. SIMILAR
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 12N...AND
ALONG THE COASTS OF W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND LIGHTEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE FRONT.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N78W TO VERO BEACH
FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT.
A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N62W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N35W
TO 25N36W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
A 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 45N15W. A RIDGE AXIS
EXTEND S FROM THE HIGH TO W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N25W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY
...WHILE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH DRIFTS E WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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