[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281133
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT JAN 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 9N13W TO 8N16W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 3N30W 3N42W
TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 9W-34W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN
40W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE E OVER THE E CONUS AND THE GULF
OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AT 28/0900 UTC REMAINS
QUASI-STATIONARY JUST S OF THE FLORIDA KEYS TO ALONG THE NW COAST OF
CUBA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO
23N89W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
AIR OVER THE N GULF AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF W OF THE
FRONT WITH A 1021 MB HIGH OFF SE LOUISIANA NEAR 28N89W GIVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. STATIONARY
FRONT OVER THE SE GULF WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF SE LOUISIANA WILL BE REPLACED
BY STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THAT BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER
THIS MORNING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN CONTINUE TO BUILD E
ACROSS THE GULF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW THEN
SETS UP OVER THE NW GULF LATE MON THROUGH WED.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE
BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW AREA WHERE THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W
THEN DISSIPATING TO OVER N GUATEMALA AND DRAWING MOISTURE ALOFT
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30
NM SE OF THE FRONT. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 77W-85W
AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA BETWEEN 63W-68W. THIS
IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
TUE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE ACROSS MUCH OF THE N
CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE W ATLC AT 28/0900 UTC NEAR 32N71W ALONG 28N76W ACROSS
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND TO 25N81W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AS A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ARE
DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 30N55W
GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH DIPS S
OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 25W-45W SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N35W TO 23N37W GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 22N
BETWEEN 30W-39W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE FAR E ATLC E OF 30W
ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. W ATLC
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY E THROUGH EARLY SUN. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD E ACROSS THE W ATLC SUN PUSHING THE
FRONT TO NEAR 32N68W TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND STATIONARY TO W CUBA BY
EARLY SUN EVENING AND FROM JUST E OF BERMUDA TO 26N71W AND
STATIONARY TO W CUBA MON. THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA THEN WEAKENS SOME ON WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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