[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE JAN 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
7N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N18W ALONG 1N33W 1N46W ACROSS
THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG UPPER LOW IS MOVING ACROSS E TEXAS WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE W GULF N OF 24N W OF 90W SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT AT 10/2100 UTC EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW INLAND
OVER N LOUISIANA TO A 1008 MB LOW ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR
29N90W ALONG 26N89W 20N94W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO N OF VERACRUZ.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM OF
LINE FROM 24N90W TO INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
PANAMA CITY. THE UPPER TROUGH IS DRAWING HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE W
GULF W OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF EXTENDING AN AXIS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA
NEAR HAVANA ALONG THE W COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO OVER
THE SE CONUS. COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO
THE N CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA BY WED MORNING THEN MOVE ACROSS
S FLORIDA AND THE FAR SE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO THU WHILE
WEAKENING. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF THU
THEN QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND EXITING BY LATE FRI. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF IN ITS WAKE THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE
TROPICAL W ATLC NEAR 10N50W NW TO ACROSS CUBA NEAR HAVANA INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY
STABLE AIR ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION BETWEEN 74W-84W
WHERE MOIST TROPICAL AIR IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE E PACIFIC
REGION ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH
THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN
90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 11N82W TO OVER JAMAICA. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT E THROUGH WED
NIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA
WED NIGHT AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC W OF 50W WITH MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS AND SUPPORTING A 1019 MB HIGH N OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS
NEAR 29N76W AND A 1017 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 28N54W.
THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA TO THE CAROLINAS
WHERE HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING OFF THE COAST INTO THE W ATLC. AN
UPPER LOW/TROUGH N OF THE REGION IS DRAPING A COLD FRONT ALONG
THE N PERIPHERY OF THE W ATLC AND WILL BE ENTERING THE REGION ON
THE 0000 UTC MAP ANALYSIS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
ALONG 71W S OF 26N TO OVER HISPANIOLA BUT IS BEGINNING TO LOSE
ITS IDENTITY. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL/E ATLC
BETWEEN 33W-50W N OF 20W SUPPORTING A 1012 MB LOW JUST N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 33N38W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S
ALONG 30N37W TO 26N40W AND A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM 23N39W INTO THE TROPICS TO 14N45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 20N38W
ALONG 27N35W TO BEYOND 32N34W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE COAST
OF AFRICA EXTENDING FROM JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
29N18W ALONG 23N19W TO NEAR 16N18W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS
BETWEEN THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE CENTRAL ATLC SURFACE
TROUGHS. THE 1019 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC WILL SHIFT E THROUGH WED
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WED NIGHT
AND REACH FROM 31N75W TO W CUBA THU THEN WEAKEN FROM 31N71W TO
CENTRAL CUBA THU NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE
SE U.S. COAST THU NIGHT AND REACH FROM 31N72W TO W CUBA FRI AND
FROM 31N65W TO E CUBA SAT BEFORE WEAKEN AND THEN STALL SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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