[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 7N18W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N18W TO 2N30W 2N40W...1N46W...THROUGH
THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S53W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN
16W AND 50W...AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF WATERS...
AS THE CENTRAL TEXAS MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE. A TROUGH
HAS DEVELOPED FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND AND
NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 25N IS COVERED
BY CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE TROUGH AND CYCLONIC CENTER SUPPORT
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...TO
THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA...TO INLAND MEXICO NEAR 22N101W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 22N101W TO 27N102W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N89W AT THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...TO 28N89W AND 23N92W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
A RIDGE SPANS THE AREA FROM GUYANA TO NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA
TO BEYOND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE MONSOON
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 13N73W IN COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS...
ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 7N77W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS
DISCERNIBLE ONLY BY SATELLITE IMAGERY IS APPARENT AT THIS TIME
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 17N60W 16N70W 13N77W 9N80W
TO THE EAST OF 82W. THIS POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS AN AREA OF
BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS IN CLOUD LINES AND
SURFACE EASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR
GUADELOUPE FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 10/1200 UTC IS 0.49 OF
AN INCH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 70W/71W FROM 17N TO 26N.
BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ALSO ARE FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 64W AND 76W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ONE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 18N44W BEYOND
32N40W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 34W AND 50W.
A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS IS ALONG
13N36W 23N26W BEYOND 32N19W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N39W
TO 29N39W AND 26N40W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N39W
TO 20N41W TO 15N44W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
29N18W 22N19W 16N18W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 28N/29N FROM 45W
TO 80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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